Spurs show Real Madrid who's boss, assert themselves as European power

Tottenham Hotspur thoroughly outplayed Real Madrid, dismantling the reigning European champions 3-1 at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday night. It was a magnificent performance by Spurs, a "famous win" (Sky Sports) and "historic victory" (Guardian) whose result was never really in doubt. Even Zinedine Zidane acknowledged Spurs were superior in all aspects of this game. We told you Spurs were capable of this. Did you listen? No, you never listen and that's why this relationship is such a challenge.

We told you that Mauricio Pochettino needed his best player, Harry Kane, to start this match for his team to have a chance at victory. Kane did start, though he was noticeably compromised by the hamstring injury that kept him out of the weekend loss at Man United. It didn't matter. Compromised or not, Kane was able to stretch the Madrid defense, creating space for Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen and Tottenham's wingbacks. It was Kieran Tripper, a surprise starter on the right flank, who created the first goal by Alli with a pinpoint one-time cross. Indeed, Tripper owned the first half of this match on both ends of the pitch. Defensively his anticipation ended more than one Real Madrid attack.

In starting Trippier over Serge Aurier, Pochettino showed once again he is not afraid to use young (or not so young, in Trippier's case. Dude's already 27) English players over established international veterans on the big stage. Harry Winks also started again. While that is no longer a surprise at this point, Poch did have other options including Moussa Dembele at his disposal.

It was Winks who launched Trippier to set up the first goal. After a tentative start by both sides Tottenham started to establish themselves, growing in confidence in the early stages of the first half. Eriksen had a good early look at goal but his first touch deserted him. A few minutes later Winks lofted a pass behind Marcelo for Trippier to run onto. Trippier one-timed the ball into the six-yard box where Alli had split the Real Madrid centerbacks. 1-0 and Spurs never looked back. Alli got a second shortly after halftime and Real never really looked capable of fighting their way back. Tottenham's performance was that good.

This could be Spurs' transformative moment. It will reverberate around the world, says Bobby McMahon. There should now be no question Tottenham are now among Europe's elite teams, as Pochettino himself said afterwards. If the 1-1 draw in the first leg announced Tottenham's arrival as a contender on the continental stage, tonight's 3-1 victory drove the point home. This was timely, coming after a tough week of consecutive losses that saw Spurs lose the spot in our top 5 ranking. But it is clear now that this team belongs here. With the victory they are through to the knockout stage of the Champions League, and probably as the group winners. This sets Tottenham up for a potentially easier Round of 16 opponent than they might have drawn as runners-up. Not that that should matter. This win tonight will make teams throughout the continent take notice: Spurs can beat absolutely anybody.

Real Madrid are in a bit of crisis and Spurs can beat them -- but only if Harry Kane plays

Tottenham Hotspur host Real Madrid in the Champions League tomorrow hoping to rebound after a tough week. For the uninitiated: Spurs were every bit Real's equal in their first meeting a fortnight ago and provoked a series of media fellatio after trouncing Liverpool. Then the letdown of the Carabao Cup defeat to West Ham and 1-0 loss to Manchester United on the weekend have caused a pretty brutal hangover for Tottenham.

Real Madrid have been struggling as well and their struggle is more real if only because of the immense expectations placed on this side. Zinedine Zidane's men were upset by newly-promoted Girona on Sunday and have fallen to third place in La Liga, eight points behind their Catalan rivals after just 10 games. More importantly, they've been dropped from our latest #top5 (so too have Tottenham). The team's president bitch-slapped the players in front of Zidane after Sunday's defeat and there is talk of this being the first genuine crisis facing Zidane as Real manager.

To put the pressure facing Zidane into perspective: if Spurs win tomorrow, it would be just the second time Real have lost consecutive games since he took charge at the Bernabeu, according to data compiled by our friends at Transfermarkt. But that would be enough to plunge Real into real crisis and one would think put Zidane's job in peril.

Tottenham are up for the task. They almost nicked the first game at the Bernabeu. Against Liverpool, the last time an 'A' Spurs side graced the Wembley pitch, they were confident and played superbly, with the 4-1 score flattering Liverpool in the end. An 'A' Spurs side -- ay, there's the rub. Tottenham's best player, Harry Kane, is nursing a hamstring injury and missed the last two games, both losses. At Old Trafford, Harry Kane's absence gave Jose Mourinho the necessary latitude to actually dominate proceedings for once, at least in the early going. Spurs might have been unlucky to not sneak off with a point, but there's no question the game would have been completely different with Kane in the starting 11. The latest reports have Tottenham "optimistic" that Kane will be fit for the match, with Pochattino apparently hinting he could play, though the medical staff will surely err on the side of caution seeing how this is not a must-win situation (Spurs are still in good shape to advance to the next round even with a loss).

Spurs will need Kane to keep Real's defenders honest. Without Kane in attack, everything else Tottenham does is secondary. He is the only one who can create the necessary havoc by himself. Sure, having Fernando Llorente alongside to free up space worked out great in the first game and can probably have he same effect this time out. But Kane needs to be there from the start. Without him, there simply isn't enough to threaten Real Madrid. Christian Eriksen has been poor lately and was arguably Spurs' worst player at the Bernabeu. Dele Alli is not in midseason form yet either and does not appear capable of single-handedly breaking down a defense like Real Madrid's. Heung Min Son is a complementary player and nothing more, or at least not yet. All of them need Kane to work more effectively. For this reason it's hard to see Spurs having much of a chance if Kane is not starting tomorrow.

Our fearless forecast then will have to depend on this x-factor. If Kane starts, we're calling a 2-1 Tottenham victory. If he is on the bench and can see 30 or 45 minutes of action, chances favor a draw. If he is unable to play at all, Spurs have no chance.

The world's top five soccer clubs as of Oct. 23, 2017

Here it is, the second edition of this season's top five club ranking, reflecting the full slate of weekend games. Check out last week's iteration here. There were some important results with the teams in the #top5 (yes that's going viral) so let's see how that affected things. This list was updated to add a non-European team and "honorable mention" roll of other clubs warranting consideration. Scroll to the bottom to read that section or click here:

5. Tottenham Hotspur

Last week's spot: None, this is Spurs' first appearance pretty much ever since we've been doing these lists.
Record in all competition: 9-1-3 (nine wins, one loss, three draws)
Notable results: Lost to Chelsea at home (2-1, on Aug. 20), beat Borussia Dortmund at home (3-1, Sept. 13), drew at Real Madrid (1-1, Oct. 17), beat Liverpool 4-1 at home yesterday.
Discussion: It was a superb week for Spurs, starting with the impressive performance at the Bernabeu. Then there was the beat-down of Liverpool yesterday. The 4-1 scoreline actually flattered Liverpool, who were a complete mess defensively and don't look to be making any appearances on this list anytime soon, if ever. But at least they still have Jurgen Klopp. Oh wait, Klopp's record is actually worse than both of his predecessors' after the same number of games played. But this isn't about Klopp or Liverpool -- it's about Tottenham and the fact is Mauricio Pochettino's men belong here in a list of the best teams on the planet. They've been tested against the best (Real Madrid, away) and didn't blink. They've beaten every other quality side they faced except for Chelsea (their one loss) and that was in August. Games played in August are deeply discounted in our model, and not because Harry Kane isn't able to score any goals during that month. Tottenham ooze quality. Their goalkeeper is one of the best shot-stoppers in the game, their three centerbacks match up with any on the planet and then there's Harry Kane. English players are often usually almost always overhyped, often to the point of hyperbole, but with Kane the superlatives simply fit -- and that's according to people like Thierry Henry, a proven hater. Keep in mind that Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen have not really found their form, that Moussa Dembele and Danny Rose have been injured and that Kyle Walker left during the close season. This team is not just good, it can still get a lot better. Man City and Europe should take notice. These are giddy times for us Spurs supporters.
The road ahead: After a challenging week things don't get any easier. A League Cup match against West Ham is Wednesday, followed by a trip to Old Trafford on Saturday. Man United have seen better days and there are indications Jose Mourinho has lost the dressing room already and the team is on for a repeat performance of 2016/17. Still a visit to the Old Trafford is never easy and Spurs have lost or drawn 73 percent of the time these teams have played historically (136 of 186 games, according to our friends at 11v11.com. The recent record is more in Tottenham's favor though, with the North London side losing just three of the last 10 matchups). The return leg against Real is Nov. 1. The North London derby Nov. 19 followed by the return leg against Borussia Dortmund two days later. Man City, if you're curious, is on the docket for Dec. 16. It's feasible that match could go a long way toward deciding the Premiership title.

4. Real Madrid

Last week: Fifth
Record in all competition: 8-1-3 (8 wins, 1 loss, 3 ties)
Notable results: Won at Dortmund (by 3-1, on Sept. 26), drew Tottenham Hotspur at home (1-1, Oct. 17)
Discussion: Real Madrid move up a spot by virtue of Man United dropping out. Real held serve this weekend, beating SD Eibar by the impressive-sounding score of 3-nil. While Real are just third in La Liga, it is due to points dropped in August (when two of their draws took place) and in their solitary loss to Real Betis on Sept. 20. None of those results speak to any real weakness with this team, though it will be very interesting indeed to see how they do at Wembley in the return leg against Spurs.
The road ahead: The return leg at Tottenham is Nov. 1. The Madrid derby is Nov. 28. A trip to Bilbao looms Dec. 12. The superclasico clash against Barcelona is on Dec. 20.

3. Paris Saint Germain

Last week: Second
Record in all competition: 11-0-2
Notable results: Beat Bayern Munich (3-0, Sept. 27), drew Olympique Marseille (2-2, Oct. 22)
Discussion: PSG came back to draw Olympique Marseille yesterday in thrilling fashion. The highlights are worth watching. Here, check them out:

Thrilling though the game was, it still exposed some weaknesses in PSG's game, particularly its defense. The ranking committee has taken notice and docked PSG one spot in the #top5. PSG should still win Ligue Un with ease. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess. They likely won't be truly tested until the elimination round of the Champions League, depending on who they draw.
The road ahead: The return leg at Bayern Munich which wraps up the UCL group stage is worth watching. Probably won't matter in the standings but could be a good test as Bayern look resurgent under Jupp Heynckes. That game is Dec. 5. Also visit Monaco (currently second in Ligue Un), Nov. 25.

2. FC Barcelona

Last week: Third
Record in all competition: 11-0-1
Notable results: Beat Juventus (3-0, Sept. 12). Drew at Atletico Madrid (1-1, Oct. 14)
Discussion: Barca move up a spot by virtue of a 2-nil victory over Malaga on Saturday. Their record is now quite simply better than PSG's and they look the better side so far, albeit by a narrow margin.
The road ahead: Visit Athletic Bilbao Saturday. The return leg against Juventus is Nov. 22, though that may not matter at that point.
The clash with Real Madrid is on Wednesday, Dec. 20. At the Bernabeu. Midweek. Should be fun.

1. Manchester City

Last week: First
Record in all competition: 12-0-1
Notable results: Won at Chelsea (1-0, Sept. 30), beat Napoli (2-1, Oct. 17)
Discussion: Man City continue to boss England and Europe alike. Last week they saw off Napoli with ease and had a nice stroll at Burnley yesterday. Their goal difference in the Premiership is 32 for, four against and in the Champions League it's been a similar story: eight scored, one conceded. Their Champions League group may not be a veritable group of death, but it does include a tough visit to Shakhtar Donetsk (already passed, City won 2-nil) and the aforementioned Napoli who currently lead Serie with an unbeaten record (it was unbeaten and untied but Napoli drew Inter Milan on Saturday). It's hard to see exactly where and whether Man City have any weaknesses. Surely the defense is untested and may begin to show signs of rust as the season wears on. But for now, this is the top team in the world, hands down. Oh yeah that one draw was against Everton on the second matchday of the season. Like we said, August. It's hard to imagine City not putting 10 past Everton if that match were played now.
The road ahead: An easy week with Wolverhampton Wanderers in League Cup action on Wednesday, followed by West Bromwich Albion on the weekend. The return leg against Napoli is the following Tuesday. The Manchester derby is the second weekend in December, though with the way things are going Man U don't look like they'll be able to offer up much in the way of competition.

Non European Team of Note: River Plate

Unbeaten so far, with a record of six wins, no losses and three draws in all competition (the Soccer Source ranking system counts matches played over two legs as one result). Sit second in the Argentine Superliga, six points behind ancient rivals Boca Juniors who have a perfect start through six games but are not in any continental competition. River Plate is in the semifinals of the Copa Libertadores. The first leg of kicks off tonight against Lanus, who are currently fifth in the Argentine top flight.

Also receiving consideration for top five: Napoli (first place in Serie A, but just third in their Champions League group), Chelsea (first in their CL group where they won at Atletico Madrid, fourth in Premiership), Besiktas (first in their Champions League group after defeats of Monaco, RB Leipzig and FC Porto, but just third in domestic competition).

The Top 5 Soccer Clubs in the World, 2017/18 Season, First Edition

This ranking has been updated! Whilst we appreciate you reading this entry, it's worth checking out the updated one too! Click here for the latest top 5.

Just in time for the weekend, our inaugural ranking edition for this season. It's obviously early days but here's an early look at how things are shaping up. Reminder that while scientific methods (wins, losses, ties, head-to-head competition, etc.) are used wherever possible, this ranking is by its very nature subjective. In other words, it is intended to inspire, rather than conclude any debate on this topic of what the best teams in the world might be right now. So comments and feedback are encouraged. Just don't expect us to like it. Just kidding, we welcome all of it. But here goes:

5. Real Madrid

Record in all competition: 7-1-3 (7 wins, 1 loss, 3 ties)
Notable results: Won at Dortmund (by 3-1, on Sept. 26), drew Tottenham Hotspur at home (1-1, Oct. 17)
Discussion: This was the toughest choice. Others warranting consideration were Chelsea, Napoli and Atletico Madrid. But all of those teams have lost against squads further up in this ranking (and in Chelsea's case, against Crystal Palace, which doomed any chances of their inclusion. Sorry you can't lose against Crystal Palace and make the list of top anything). While Napoli's one loss at Manchester City (more on them in a bit) is certainly forgivable, their listless performance was not. Neither is a loss at Shakthar Donetsk, though a victory over AS Roma and unbeaten, untied record in Serie A did bolster Napoli's case. Atletico lost at home to Chelsea and lacked a marquee victory (draws against Roma and Barcelona weren't enough in the end). That leaves Real Madrid. The 3-1 win at Dortmund was impressive and the draw against Tottenham was an early season highlight for both teams and neutral observers alike. (For more on that, see our write-up from the other day). We're more willing to forgive Real's one loss, a 1-0 defeat at home to Real Betis on Sept. 20, than Atletico's Champions League slip-up versus Chelsea.
The road ahead: The return leg at Tottenham is Nov. 1. Will Tottenham be able to duplicate their surprising performance from the Bernabeu and maybe even best Real, which would certainly knock them off of this ranking? Or will Real reassert themselves. The domestic league campaign has already left little margin for error, with the way Barcelona and second-placed Valencia have started to the season. The Madrid derby is Nov. 28. A trip to Athletic Bilbao looms Dec. 12. The superclasico clash against Barcelona on Dec. 20.

4. Manchester United

Record in all competition: 10-0-2
Notable results: Drew Liverpool at Anfield (0-0, Oct. 14)
Discussion: Jose Mourinho's side really haven't been tested. Their Champions League group is a bit of a joke, with CSKA Moscow, FC Basel and Benfica Lisbon. The two toughest challenges, away at Lisbon and Moscow, were already passed with ease. A 2-2 draw at Stoke City on Sept. 9 is the only blemish other than the boring scoreless draw at Anfield last week.
The road ahead: Host Spurs on Oct. 28. That's next weekend. Will Mourinho park the bus at home against one of Europe's most exciting teams? Probably, because Mourinho is a pussy. Visit Chelsea the weekend after that. Host Man City on Dec. 9, another opportunity to park the bus at home.

3. FC Barcelona

Record in all competition: 10-0-1
Notable results: Beat Juventus (3-0, Sept. 12). Drew at Atletico Madrid (1-1, Oct. 14)
Discussion: Were dominant in all but three matches. In the first, Barca came back from a 1-0 halftime deficit to beat Getafe on Sept. 16. Then they needed a late own-goal to win at Sporting Lisbon on Sept. 27. The third resulted in the draw at Atletico Madrid. All other wins came by two goals or more.
The road ahead: Visit Athletic Bilbao a week from Saturday. The return leg against Juventus is Nov. 22, though that may not matter at that point.
The clash with Real Madrid is on Wednesday, Dec. 20. At the Bernabeu. Midweek. Should be fun.

2. Paris Saint Germain

Record in all competition: 11-0-1
Notable results: Beat Bayern Munich (3-0, Sept. 27)
Discussion: PSG are already bossing the French ligue as might be expected, though they somehow were held to a scoreless draw at home against Montpellier on Sept. 23. That's the only blemish in an otherwise impressive campaign so far. The Champions League hasn't been a challenge either. Bayern Munich have been a bit of a mess and already changed managers. Celtic and Anderlecht are several levels below PSG. So is just about anybody. It will take the elimination round of the Champions League for this team to be tested. We like them more than Barcelona so far.
The road ahead: Actually, the return leg at Bayern Munich which wraps up the UCL group stage is worth watching. Probably won't matter in the standings but could be a good test as Bayern look resurgent under Jupp Heynckes. That game is Dec. 5. Also visit Monaco, Nov. 25.

1. Manchester City

Record in all competition: 11-0-1
Notable results: Won at Chelsea (1-0, Sept. 30), beat Napoli (2-1, Oct. 17)
Discussion: The only blemish against Pep Guardiola's side is a 1-1 draw against Everton back on Aug. 21. August results really shouldn't count, nor should results against Liverpool clubs which is why we aren't mentioning a 5-0 drubbing of the Reds on Sept. 9. But this has been a truly impressive run of results by Man City.
The road ahead: It's mostly smooth sailing the next couple of weeks. They host Burnley this weekend. The return leg against Napoli is Nov. 1. The clash with Man United will be the one to watch, the second weekend in December.

Hazard Heroics Keep Premiership Clubs Unbeaten in Champions League

Eden Hazard's late equalizer against AS Roma last night salvaged a remarkable run by Premier League teams that now has them unbeaten in three matchdays in the UEFA Champions League. As far as can be immediately determined, this is an unprecedented run of success for English clubs in European competition. It follows several years underwhelming (or worse) performance by Premiership sides in the Champions League and may (may!) just be the start of a new era of dominance. For that to happen obviously English teams are going to need to advance deep into the knockout stages and do what Chelsea last accomplished in 2012, which is win the whole darned thing. It's early days, but the record does speak to a renaissance of English club football on Europe's grandest stage.

Eleven wins, four draws, no losses. Forty-four goals scored, 11 conceded. That is the record of Premier League teams in the Champions League so far this season. The five English teams lead their respective groups (in the case of Tottenham Hotspur the lead is shared with Real Madrid, but still). One could argue that the competition has been substandard, that Premiership teams have been spared teams like Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich of Paris Saint Germain. But this would be unfair. Chelsea won at Atletico Madrid. Tottenham dominated Borussia Dortmund on a ground, Wembley Stadium, where Spurs are supposed to be jinxed. More recently Tottenham proved themselves every bit Real Madrid's equal at the Estadio Bernabeu. Worth noting that Real is unbeaten in its last eight Champions League home games.

But Tottenham are not England's best team (sorry fellow Spurs supporters. We're good but we're not that good). Nor are Chelsea (sorry not sorry Chelski fans), who blew a two-goal lead at Stamford Bridge last night before Hazard's second goal won them the point against Roma. This year the two Manchester clubs are head and shoulders above the rest and will in all likelihood decide the title between them. Man City have been the more impressive of the two. Pep Guardiola's side are unbeaten in all competition, with a home draw to Everton on Aug. 21 the lone blemish. Since Sept. 1 they have reeled off nine wins in a row by a combined score of 34-4. On Tuesday night they made short work of Napoli, who currently top Italy's Serie A table.

All of which speaks to a resurgence of English clubs in continental competition. A sorely needed one because since Chelsea's triumph in 2012 Premiership teams have managed just two semifinal appearances in the Champions League, losing both. The last time multiple English teams made the semis? In 2009, when three did (back then Arsenal were even good enough for the task. How times have changed. Nowadays Gunners don't seem capable of making the Europa League semifinals, or much of anything else for that matter). It's been a long drought but indications are it may be nearing its end.

An Inspiring Performance From Spurs as English Clubs Boss Europe

Tottenham Hotspur's inspiring 1-1 draw at Real Madrid last night demonstrates Mauricio Pochettino's men deserve to be included with the elite clubs of Europe. With Liverpool beating up on poor Maribor and Manchester City defeating Napoli, it was an impressive night for Premiership clubs in the UEFA Champions League and one that may underlie a resurgence of English teams on the continent. More on that later.

But first to the events of the Bernabeu. Here were Spurs, fresh off a listless 1-0 victory over Bournemouth on the weekend, showing themselves every bit the equal to the reigning European champions. Yes, Hugo Lloris needed every bit of his athletic reflexes to salvage the draw and sure, there was a bit of good fortune in Kerim Benzema's squandered opportunities in front of the Tottenham goal. Still, make no mistake: Spurs belonged here and could have even nicked the victory with a bit more good fortune. Also, Spurs were robbed of a penalty in the first half when the Polish referee decided that a blatant trip on Fernando Llorente was, for reasons yet obscure, not worthy of his whistle. So while the result was just it would not have been unfair for Tottenham to make off with all three points. And yes, this demonstrates Spurs can compete with absolutely anybody, as Pochettino made clear in his postgame comments.

You have to credit the Spurs manager for being creative with his formation. Nobody could have predicted the 4-2-3-1 he trotted out. While the Llorente experiment didn't exactly come off (few touches for the Spaniard), Moussa Sissoko did wonders with the extra space provided to him in midfield and Harry Winks again looked like a seasoned pro. Jan Vertonghen was steady at left back and Davinson Sanchez very solid throughout. Only Serge Aurier, ostensibly in the game for attacking purposes, was a defensive liability. His clumsy foul cost Spurs the penalty that led to the equalizer (though even the most dedicated Kieran Trippier fanboy would claim the English wingback would have been a better option than Aurier. I mean seriously, Tripper has proven himself as a defensive liability. The Bernabeu is no place for a player like that). Christian Eriksen, normally one of Spurs' best players, had an uncharacteristic poor game in the attacking end. If he had done a little more Spurs surely would have been superior to Real on the night.

With the point, and Borussia Dortmund's surprise draw at APOEL, Spurs are all but assured passage to the knockout stage of the tournament. Who could have predicted that when the groups were drawn?!? But all Tottenham have to do is keep Real and Dortmund close in their next two games before beating the Cypriots on the final matchday and the elimination round is theirs. They could even win the group depending on how things play out.

Premiership Resurgence
Take a look at the Champions League tables. English clubs are unbeaten, and sit either first or second in their groups. Man City is looking all but unbeatable and will certainly warrant consideration as the top team in the world when the next rankings are released (after the next set of Champions League games, promise). English teams' records so far: Ten wins, three draws, no losses. If that doesn't speak to a European resurgence for the Premiership teams then it's hard to say what would. Some of these victories have been truly impressive: Spurs' dismantling of Dortmund, Chelsea's win at Atletico Madrid. In today's matchups, Manchester United (at Benfica Lisbon) and Chelsea (home to Roma) have an opportunity to drive the point home, that English clubs are back and that the continent should take notice. It will take advancing into the deeper rounds of the knockout stage to prove this point of course, but the early signs are very encouraging.

The Top 5 Soccer Clubs in the World

Just for fun, and because a top 25 is way too ambitious. And of course this could just be called "European clubs" since teams from other continents are some ways off of their quality. A note on methodology: This ranking is subjective and meant to capture (or intend to capture) the status on a seasonal basis. So this is not a ranking of form, but of the team's body of work throughout the season. Wherever possible, objective measures are weighed in the rankings: wins, losses, head-to-head, etc. Also weighing heavily is whether a team is still alive in continental competition, primarily the UEFA Champions League, now halfway through its quarterfinal fixtures. Oh yeah, for our purposes matches played over two legs count as one victory or loss. So let's get to it:

5. AS Monaco
Record in all competitions: 37 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses (76% winning percentage)
Notable victories: Tottenham Hotspur (twice), Paris Saint Germain, Manchester City
If their sweep of Spurs in the Champions League group stage didn't convince English fans of Monaco's quality, then the memorable victory over Man City certainly did the job. This is an exciting team with exciting players which rightfully deserves to be mentioned with Europe's elite. Everybody knows Kylian Mbappe's name by now, but the club from the principality have no fewer than five players who could become bonafide superstars (probably not at Monaco but that's another story). Leonardo Jardim's men started the season rather slowly, with a tough Champions League qualification victory against Fenerbahce Istanbul and draw at home against Guingamp. Yes exactly, Guingamp. It's been smooth sailing since. One of the season's five losses came against Bayer Leverkusen on the final day of their Champions League group stage after Monaco had already won the group (which realistically shouldn't be counted as a loss but we'll let it stand for purely technical reasons). One blemish is a recent loss to PSG in the French league cup finale. Les Monegasques have a three point lead over their Parisian rivals with five matchdays remaining, having not lost a Ligue Un match since December. They also carry a 3-2 lead into their CL quarter final return leg against a Borussia Dortmund team that has had (much) better seasons. If Monaco blow this they'll make us look like clueless a-holes. We don't like being made to look like clueless a-holes.

4. Bayern Munich
Record in all competitions: 30 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses (75% winning percentage)
Notable victories: Arsenal, Atletico Madrid (x2), RB Leipzig, Dortmund
Notable losses: Dortmund (away), Hoffenheim (away)
The German Rekordmeister (it means they've won more Bundesliga titles than anybody else. One of those compound German words that needs an entire sentence to be explained. Kind of like Schadenfreude) are alive in all competitions though kind of hanging by a thread in the Champions League thanks to a weak home loss to Real Madrid in the first leg of their quarterfinal match up. You get the sense the Germans were not properly tested yet this season before that game. Certainly not by an Arsenal in turmoil, whom they easily dispatched in the round of 16, and not by their Bundesliga competitors. How bad is the German top flight this year? RB Leipzig, a promoted team, are Bayern's closest competitors for the league title (another promoted club, SC Freiburg, are sixth). A club with the name TSG Hoffenheim sit third. That bad. In fact, you could make the point that it's a bit of a farce.

3. Barcelona
Record in all competitions: 32 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses (74% winning percentage)
Notable victories: That comeback win over Paris Saint Germain
Other notable results: Drew Real Madrid 1-1 at home in December
Barca trail their rivals from Spain's capital city by just three points in La Liga, while boasting a better goal difference (+61 to Real's +49), so everything to play for there. Recent losses at La Coruna and Malaga have been costly but the return leg against Real looms April 23. The blaugrana split their Champions League series with Manchester City, with a 4-0 beatdown at Camp Nou followed by a 3-1 loss at the Etihad. The Champions League group stage was otherwise forgettable, with easy victories over hopelessly overmatched Celtic and slightly less overmatched Borussia Moenchengladbach. Unforgettable on the other hand was that ridiculous comeback against PSG, though it may have masked some deeper flaws with the club. With Barca that is. PSG's flaws, a choke-artistry that can only be described as uniquely French, were readily apparent.

2. Real Madrid
Record in all competitions: 29 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses (71% winning percentage)
Notable achievements: Eliminated Napoli in CL Round of 16, drew Barcelona at Camp Nou, won 3-0 at Atletico Madrid
There are a couple of blemishes on Real's record: a loss to Celta Vigo over two legs in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals was certainly the major disappointment of the season so far, and their performance in a relatively weak Champions League group (finishing second behind Borussia Dortmund) also left a little bit to be desired. Other than that this club seems to have everything. While Cristiano Ronaldo certainly isn't getting any younger, with former Tottenham players like Gareth Bale and Luca Modric feeding him the ball that doesn't really matter all that much now, does it?

1. Juventus
Record in all competition: 34 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses (81% winning percentage)
Notable victories: At Sevilla in Champions League group stage, Roma
Notable losses: Inter, AC Milan, Genoa, Fiorentina (all away)
Masimiliano Allegri's men boast the best winning percentage of the clubs tracked here. Fresh off a 3-0 dismantling of Barcelona in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, the old lady of Italian football is firing on all cylinders. Their eight point lead atop the Serie A standings should be safe with six matchdays remaining, though a visit to second-placed Roma looms on May 14. Speaking of safe, that three-goal cushion over Barca should be sufficient as well, since, well, Juventus are not Paris Saint Germain. Paulo Dybala is looking like the next Argentine superstar.

Chelsea FC: The Best Team on the Planet

In the end it's just that simple. Chelsea FC, the team that for two thirds of the 2011-2012 season could do little right, did just enough to defeat Bayern Munich yesterday and claim their first-ever Champions League (or equivalent) trophy.

In so doing, Blues take the throne of club soccer and the unofficial title of best team in the world. It is a dubious distinction for a side that (according the the Premiership table at least) is just the third-best in London and lost two of its last five matches this season--to go along with various transgressions earlier in the campaign (in a 17-game stretch dating to December 17, Chelsea managed just six victories. The wins came against Wolves, QPR, Sunderland, Portsmouth, Bolton and Birmingham City). Still, Chelsea deserve both honors: the Champions League trophy and "best team in the world" moniker. For the following reasons:

1. While Chelsea were certainly not the best club throughout 2011-2012, it's where you finish that counts. After all, we are calling them "the best team in the world RIGHT NOW." It's hard to argue, after defeating Barcelona over 180 minutes and Bayern Munich over 120 (plus penalties), that Blues could not defeat any team in the world at present. Yes, even Premier League champions Manchester City who beat them on the field of play as recently as March 21.

2. Results matter. Clearly Chelsea's style leaves a lot to be desired. At its worst it is a throwback to the 1990s Italian defensive bulwark stuff, which makes sense since that's when Roberto di Matteo plied his trade as a player. That's a shame, but winning ugly is still winning. And how exactly would you expect somebody to play on opponents' grounds in the latter stages of a winner-take-all tournament? Also, Chelsea have this attacker, Didier Drogba, who would be completely alien to Italian national teams of any era, and this not just for superficial reasons. In fact, the entire soccer world has never quite seen anything like Drogba. Most strikers are short, spry fellows. Few have the prowess for finishing and nose for the goal like DD does. Which brings us to the next point...

3. Didier Drogba. This is ultimately what sets Chelsea apart. The 34-year old Ivory Coast international combines an innate scoring ability and imposing physical presence with nerves of steel and a clamoring for the biggest moments of the biggest games. Soccer is a team game and you need 11 guys to do the job and do it well. In that sense, Drogba is merely a role player. It just so happens that his role is to score goals and as a pure goalscorer it could be argued that Drogba is among the very best to ever play the game. Or at least among recent generations: More clutch than Romario and Ronaldo, more prolific than Maradona (as a goal scorer), more imposing than Lineker. We all rave about Messi's brilliance and rightfully so, but on the field of play, over 180 minutes, Drogba's Chelsea got the better of Messi's Barca (see item 2 above: "results matter").

4. Who's their competition for best club in the world? Start with the league champions first: Man City are branded by having exited the Champions League in the group stage. Juventus? Didn't play in Europe this season so we can't take them seriously. Real Madrid? Lost to Bayern in the Champions League semis. Montpellier? No way. Porto? Looked horrible against Man City in Europa League action.

Does this mean the Champions League winner automatically gets the "best club in the world" title? Not always, though in recent years it's hard to argue against the winners. You'd have to go back to 2005 and the legendary "miracle of Istanbul" to find a club (Liverpool) that was not the best in the world at that time. But that's another argument for another day.

Sorry Chelsea, Barca's Superiority Will Carry the Day

Chelsea fans don't want to hear this, but today their club faces a monumental task that will in all likelihood fall short. The reference here is of course to the return leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal with Barcelona that takes place at Camp Nou stadium.

Blues shocked just about everybody with their 1-nil victory in last week's first leg. It was a gutsy performance from Roberto DiMatteo's men and one that supplied (temporary) payback for the bitter defeat at the same stage of the same tournament three years ago.

Alas, unlike in 2009 Chelsea were not the better team on the day. Barca dominated possession and in the first 45 minutes saw one shot carom off the crossbar and another headed off the line. In first half stoppage time, almost as an afterthought, Didier Drogba put the home side up. Only through a tremendous defensive effort, fantastic goalkeeping and some good luck (missed chances by Adriano and Sanchez, a stoppage time ball off the post) were Chelsea able to hang on for the win.

Over 180 minutes one side's run of luck usually cancels out and Chelsea are simply not good enough to make up the difference. Pep Guardiola will take advantage of the additional space supplied by the Camp Nou pitch to stretch a tired Blues defense that, let's not forget, is anchored by a pair of 32-year olds. While it is true that Barca have not played up to their usual high standards lately, the Catalan side's poor run of form gives them something to prove. After Sunday's bitter home loss to Real Madrid, Barca are all but assured of losing the Liga crown to their archrivals. With only the cup final on May 25 on the agenda, resources have been freed up to defend the Champions League title with renewed vigor. So expect the blaugrana to come out fighting. And expect Chelsea to eventually -- probably in the first 45 minutes -- to yield a goal. The second half should then see the floodgates open.

A bit of a grandiose prediction, it is true. But Chelsea have struggled for much of the season. While that may not have been a reflection of their true quality, they are surely playing over their heads a bit now. Over two legs a team like that will succumb to a superior opponent. Barca, even after Sunday's humiliation, are that opponent.

English Clubs Just Aren't Very Good This Year

It's an off year for English football. Despite all the money and hype, amid all the allegations of racist abuse and "handshakegate"s and other drama, English teams have consistently come up short in international competitions.

Take Arsenal. Here is a team that sit fourth in the English Premier League, which is good enough to make the UEFA Champions League next year. Other than one embarrassing display at Old Trafford in late August, Gunners have looked fully capable of hanging with the best teams in England.

Today, against AC Milan in the first elimination round of this year's UCL tourney, Gunners looked more like a youth side taking on the senior club -- or if you prefer a U.S.-centric comparison, the JVs facing the varsity. Either way, it wasn't pretty. Arsene Wenger's men were outplayed, outhustled and overwhelmed by the rossoneri, going down 4-0 in a game that frankly didn't look that close. The teams really didn't look like they belonged on the same pitch at the same time. Milan's pace was far faster, their passing crisper, their marking tighter. They made better runs in attack. Their goalkeeping was better. This was Arsenal's worst-ever defeat in European competition and one that, barring a miracle in the return leg, will leave them with nothing but the FA Cup and fourth place in the Prem to play for.

And it's not just Arse, either. Neither Manchester club (currently 1-2 in the Premiership) made it out of the group stage of this year's Champions League. That's just embarrassing considering the payroll disparities between the Mancunians and their group stage opponents, particularly in Man U's case (Otelul Gulati and FC Basel? Really?).

Or take the Europa League. Tottenham Hotspur were drawn into a group with teams from Ireland, Russia and Greece (Greece!) and couldn't even finish second. This is a club, Spurs, that are supposed to have a realistic shot at winning the league in the first time in (what might as well be) centuries. Birmingham City and Fulham didn't make it out of their groups either. I know there's a big gap between those clubs and the ones at the top of the Premiership table, but come on. Interestingly enough, the team with the toughest Europa League draw, Stoke City, actually qualified for the elimination round.

All of which begs the question: is this just a one year anomaly we are looking at? Or is the sun finally setting on the Premiership empire? Time will tell, but the signs are ominous. Last year's Champions League finale showed us just how far the gap has widened between the best team from Spain and its English counterpart. This year's Champions League and Europa League group stages demonstrated that English clubs at the very least play down to the level of inferior opponents, if they can indeed be called that. Today we saw that the fourth-placed Premiership side were little more than target practice for the top team in Italy.

What is the cause of this? That is another topic for another day but suffice it to say that it can't be economic, given all the petro and oligarch cash that has flooded the Premiership in recent years. That would mean that the players are certainly still world class. What about the coaching? We can sing the praises of Sir Alex and Arsene Wenger and Harry Redknapp and others, and deservedly so, but maybe, just maybe their counterparts on the continent have overtaken them. Arsenal especially just seem to lack something this season that could suggest Wenger has lost his magic touch. Do English teams maybe have a handicap when it comes to fitness levels? Have they gotten sloppy with their defending? These things deserve a look. Stay tuned.

Suddenly, Man City's Season is on the Brink

Yesterday's 2-1 loss at Napoli has left Manchester City in a very precarious position in their Champions League group. Citizens now have to defeat Bayern Munich in the final matchday and hope Napoli somehow draw or lose at Villareal. The same Villareal that have a whopping zero (0) points from five Champions League games this season and sit 12th in the Spanish liga.

So things certainly don't look good for Robert Mancini's men. And the stakes are very large indeed. How large are we talking? Put it this way: Failure to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals would render City's season a disappointment. So much so that not even a first-ever Premiership title would lessen the pain much.

The financial implications alone are massive. With UEFA Fair Play rules set to go into effect, lack of television income from the knockout stages would take a major toll on City's ability to maintain their fabulous payroll. And if Man City exit the Champions League at this early stage, we will never know how good this team might be in the grand scheme of things.

That would be a real shame because judging by some of their better performances this season, Man City look like they could have the potential to go down as one of the great teams of the century. But for that to happen they need to prove themselves in Europe. And we aren't talking the Europa League either. It's Champions League or bust for these guys.

Defeating Bayern Munich may in fact be the easiest part of this. The Germans have first place in the group locked up so theres nothing to play for. The match at Eastlands comes in the middle of a four game stretch in 13 days for Jupp Heynckes's side. Expect Bayern to commit the wholly un-German act of falling on their sword.

Unfortunately, City can hardly expect much help from Villareal. The Spanish side have no dog in this fight either. They are sure to finish dead last in the group. The Napoli match is their second of four in a 10 day stretch. Like Bayern, they can be expected to rest starters.

City's exit from the Champions League may then be a foregone conclusion. A shame, but maybe this fate tells us everything we need to know about their standing in the whole scheme of things. Drawn into a group with only one elite team, Mancini's men were simply not up to the task. So what does that say about the rest of the Premiership, a league City seemed to dominate at will? Maybe, just maybe, English teams have been passed by the competition from the continent. Man United could struggle to qualify out of one of the weakest groups in this year's draw (though unlike their crosstown rivals, Sir Alex's men still control their destiny in that manner). Chelsea are in bad shape too after today's loss. It's entirely conceivable tht Arsenal become the only English club to advance to the knockout stage of the tournament. Who could have imagined that a month or two ago?

Photo taken from London Evening Standard without permission.

Props to Bayern but the Premiership is still the best league in the world

Bayern Munich showed remarkable resilience today coming back from a 3-0 deficit at Old Trafford to advance to the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. In fact, one could almost say Bayern today slayed the ghosts of the 1999 final at Camp Nou. Well, maybe not. But you've got to give the German club credit for pulling it off.

As a Yank, I generally don't like standing up for anything English. Or anything German. Or anything, well un-American. As we know they're all communists and commies simply can't be trusted. But U.S. hegemony does have its limits in a few areas and association football, a.k.a. soccer, is one (another might be door handles. What's with these stupid round things we have here? I mean seriously. Wouldn't it just be easier to make them a lever the way they do elsewhere in the world? It's such a pain in the arse when you're carrying something and have to reach down and twist this stupid thing instead of just being able to lean on it and presto!)

Anyway, the English Premier League is still the best league in the world even though none of its teams are in the Champions League's final four. Here's why:

1. Had Wayne Rooney been healthy there's no way Man United lose this game and

2. The elimination round draws did English clubs no favors whatsoever.

Arsenal, arguably the worst of three English teams in the elimination round, were drawn with the best club in the entire world in the quarterfinals. Chelsea were drawn with a top five side in the round of 16. Man United got AC Milan in the round of 16, who may not be Barcelona but they sure aren't VfB Stuttgart either (whom Barcelona drew). In fact, the draws were a bit of a joke in retrospect. CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla? Bayern and Fiorentina? Olympiakos vs. Bordeaux? There can really be no argument that English clubs got the short end of the stick here.

Of course, that's life. A random draw is a random draw (unless it's conducted by FIFA, that is). Sometimes the chips fall in your favor, sometimes they do not. But when they don't and you're tasked with playing grueling two-leg matchups against top clubs along with a domestic campaign in the world's toughest league it wears on you. Injuries happen (see Rooney, Wayne). You let your guard down. Especially when, for example, you have a 3-0 lead minutes before halftime.

Again that's not to make excuses for tonight's events at Old Trafford. Bayern were the better team over two legs and deserved to advance. As a matter of fact, if you look at the two teams' top 25 rankings going into this match-up, you'll see that they were not really far apart at all. Bayern was 7, Man U at 2 (the previous week they were even closer together at 5 and 3, respectively). So it really isn't that big of an upset. Especially not once the higher-rated team's best player is removed from the equation.

So as far as I'm concerned the Premiership still reigns. It will take a lot more for me to change my mind on this.

Galacticos go bye-bye (from Champions League)

Just like that, Real Madrid's $400 million gamble goes up in smoke. Oh sure, los blancos could still win the Spanish league. In fact, at this point they'd have to be favorites given that they sit first (on goal difference at least) and happen to host the season's last game with Barcelona. But that will be of little condolence. This year's Real Madrid squad was assembled at great expense with the clear intent of capturing the Champions League and proclaiming itself kings of European (and thus by definition) world football.

Not gonna happen now. Not after bowing out in the first elimination round to Olympique Lyon, a team that are not even first in their own mediocre domestic league. Not after being thoroughly embarrassed by a French club whose best days were said to be behind it. With one fell swoop, over the course of a single afternoon (evening in Europe), Real Madrid become poster boys for the truism that money can't buy championships.

The result simply boggles the mind. Lyon were hot coming into the matchup but this was Real Madrid we were talking about. The Galacticos! Sure, they choked away the first leg 1-0 but that left plenty of margin for error in the home round. All they had to do is win by two goals. Against a team that sit fourth in the French league, behind stalwarts Montpellier and Auxerre. I mean seriously, how difficult could it be? Especially after Real had shown their merit in a 3-2 come-from-behind win over Sevilla on the weekend?

Very difficult, it turned out. Real huffed and puffed but could not blow Lyon's house down. This despite getting off to a dream start; in the sixth minute Cristiano Ronaldo had already put the hosts up 1-0. But they were unable to capitalize and when Miralem Pjanic scored for Lyon it meant Real had 15 minutes to score two goals.

They didn't even get one. And now they have to live with the indignity of being the most expensive failure since the last time the New York Yankees didn't win the World Series.

There are sure to be numerous explanations for why Real befell this fate. Someday, somebody might pen a Spanish version of the book The worst team money could buy. For my, um, money it all comes down to the fact that Real were not challenged sufficiently with quality competition before their fatal meeting with Lyon. Look at their latest entry in the top 25: other than a tryst with AC Milan and games with Barca, Sevilla and Valencia, the merengues faced mostly cannon fodder. And if you look at their results against said quality competition (losses to Barca and Sevilla, a draw and home loss to AC Milan) the writing was very much on the wall. This was a team that had not really been tested and was prone to fall apart when challenged by a quality foreign club it knew little about. (Why we had them this high in our Top 25 is another question entirely but we don't need to go there). After all, until a team bests one of the leaders in its field it cannot really be considered much other than a collection of individuals. In this case, filthy rich and highly-talented individuals.

Where Real goes from here is anybody's guess. Figure Manuel Pellegrini's days to be numbered. Whether he shoulders any actual blame can be debated. So can the matter of who else might do a better job (I can think of a certain German individual who once played for Tottenham Hotspur and is said to be living on a beach in California somewhere).

Photo taken from Goal.com without permission.

Just how viable are the Soccer Source rankings?

This post grew out of an ongoing discussion on the BigSoccer sewing circle. The idea is to gauge exactly how accurate (or not) our Top 25 rankings are as an indicator of future results. We got into this a little bit with our initial prediction of the Champions League round of 16, but those rankings were stale by the time the actual games kicked off last week.

But now, with these matchups either halfway done (in the case of the Champions League) or decided (Europa League) we figured the time would be right to revisit the issue. That, and there is nothing to do at the dayjob today due to all the snow we're having in New York. Anyway, here goes:

Barcelona (No. 1 at last ranking) vs. Stuttgart (unranked)
The top team in our rankings had to struggle to get a 1-1 away draw against a team that has not even been on our radar as far as top clubs are concerned. While this is potentially troubling, can there really be any doubt Barca will trounce the German side at Camp Nou in the return leg? No, there cannot really. Besides, everybody in the world predicted Barca to advance so if we get this wrong we're hardly in the minority.

Inter Milan (2) vs. Chelsea (3)
Our rankings predicted a very tight matchup between two top teams and that is what it got. Inter took the first leg 2-1 at home. The advantage is to Chelsea in the return leg by virtue of the away goal, but this can still go either way--just like we had predicted.

Real Madrid (4) vs. Olympique Lyon (20)
According to our rankings, Real is clearly the superior club. Yet they lost the first leg at Lyon 1-0 and have their work cut out for them in the return leg. This would be a major upset in our book. But maybe our ranking of Real is inflated? After all this is a club whose biggest achievement was a 3-2 win at Valencia in December. We shall see.

Manchester United (5) vs. AC Milan (13)
We have Man U as the superior club so we aren't at all surprised by their 3-2 away win in the first leg. Sure, Milan could still come back but they will have to score at least twice at Old Trafford to do so.

Girondins Bordeaux (6) vs. Olympiakos (17)
The French club demonstrated their supriority in a 1-0 away win in the first leg. They're in the driver's seat to prove us right. Allez les Girondins!

Bayern Munich (7) vs. Fiorentina (unranked)
Bayern struggled to win 2-1 in the home leg, looking nothing like a team that is supposed to be the seventh-best in the world. Fiorentina, to our credit, are not complete strangers to the Top 25, having figured prominently earlier this season. But their run of recent form led us to drop them. If they can win the return leg and advance we'll obviously have to revisit that--not to mention Bayern's perch at 7.

Arsenal (8) vs. Porto (12)
The Soccer Source rankings give Arsenal the edge, though not by much. So we aren't at all surprised by Porto's 2-1 win in the first leg. Even if they are bounced at Emirates on March 9 we can still pat ourselves on the back for this. Unless of course it's a blowout...

AS Roma (9) vs. Panathinaikos
Um, okay we can pretend this didn't happen, right? Roma lost the return leg 3-2 at home, their first defeat in 20 games (we didn't count their first leg loss by the same score since it's part of the same matchup). Oops.

Sevilla (10) vs CSKA Moscow (unranked)
The Spanish side struggled to get a 1-1 away draw in the first leg of their Champions League matchup. That result is somewhat surprising considering Moscow hadn't played a competitive game in months. Less so considering it was played in an arctic climate that is to southern Spain what Vermont is to Miami.

Benfica Lisbon (11) vs. Hertha Berlin
No surprise here. Benfica blew out the German club 4-0 in the first leg and sauntered to a 1-1 draw in the second. They're through to the next round.

PSV Eindhoven (14) vs. Hamburg SV (unranked)
We had been singing PSV's praises all season, while Hamburg has been in and out of the Top 25 (mostly out). Yet the German club proved superiod in a narrow matchup, winning the return leg at home 1-0 after losing the first 3-2. At least PSV kept it close for us.

Rubin Kazan (18) vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv (unranked)
As expected, the Russian side advanced easily 3-0 on aggregate.

Fenerbahce Istanbul (21) vs. OSC Lille (unranked)
Lille have made a few appearances in the top 25 but by the time this Europa League matchup was played Fener had the advantage. Or so we thought. The French club won by scoring a late equalizer in the return leg.

RSC Anderlecht (22) vs. Athletic Bilbao
We were widely ridiculed for putting Anderlecht in our rankings. But who's ridiculous now? The Belgian side trounced the Basques 4-0 in the first leg of their Europa League matchup and coasted to a 1-1 away draw in the second. Most of the soccer world will call this an upset. Not us.

Olympique Marseille (23) vs. FC Copenhagen (unranked)
L'OM advanced easily as our rankings predicted, 6-2 on aggregate.

Shakhtar Donetsk (24) vs. Fulham (unranked)
Ooops. Roy Hodgson's side defeated the defending champs in their Europa League matchup. Oh well.

Liverpool (25) vs. Unirea Urziceni (unranked)
Reds advanced past the Romanian side without too much difficulty. Point for us.

Teams ranked 15 (Bayer Leverkusen), 16 (Valencia) and 19 (Dynamo Kiev) are not actively engaged in European competition.

Tally:
4 wrong
5 accurate
4 pending with our prediction likely correct (visiting team won or drew)
1 pending with our prediction unlikely (home team lost or drew)
3 pending and too close to call

A look at the next round of the Europa League:
Note that victories in the first elimination round have not yet been factored into the ranking. That will take place in the next edition of the Top 25, Monday, March 1:

Benfica (11) vs. Olympique Marseille (23)
Rubin Kazan (18) vs. VfL Wolfsburg (unranked)
Anderlecht (22) vs. HSV (unranked)
Liverpool (25) vs. Lille (unranked)

Photo taken from AccuWeather.com without permission.

What to make of today's Champions League results?

As you may have heard by now, Manchester United defeated AC Milan today 3-2 at the San Siro, while Olympique Lyon dropped Real Madrid 1-0 at the Stade Gerland in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 match-ups. What do these results mean in the broader realm of European soccer?

First things first. From an Anglo-American viewpoint, the Man United result is of course far more interesting, so we'll star there. Here we saw how despite Wayne Rooney's prowess (he scored twice), Red Devils were not the vastly superior team today. In fact, you could even make the case that the home side were better. Alas, what counts are goals and Milan simply did not convert their chances. Man U, on the other hand, did. Call it a classic case of the better team finding a way to win? Maybe so. And we really don't think the Italian club have much of a chance of overcoming the deficit at Old Trafford on March 10. Three away goals are simply too much to reverse at this point. Even if Milan were to win 1-0 or 2-1 in the return leg, United would advance due to the quirky nature of the away goals rule (despite its quirks, we think the rule has its place). Still, color us unconvinced of Man U's superiority at this point. We knew this year's team was unlikely to match its predecessors from the last three seasons and Sir Alex deserves credit for even getting them this close to the silverware. But in the end, I'm sorry to say that outside of the League Cup I do not see Man U winning any silverware at this point--in Europe or England.

Now as for Real Madrid vs. Lyon, here we have a game that was not as close as the result would indicate. Lyon should have scored more but, like Milan, were unable to convert their chances. Not sure what Real's problem is exactly, but you can't blame injuries or other absences at this point. Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka were both front and center, though for whatever reason Manuel Pellegrini saw the need to make a few changes to the team that defeated Xerez 3-0 on the weekend. (Actually two changes: Albiol and Mahamadou Diarra for Garay and Lassana Diarra) It obviously didn't work because Lyon were the superior side today. And this (Real) is supposed to be the fourth-best team in the world? Lyon, on the other hand, fell off our radar completely for several months, just this week returning to the Top 25 after a long absence. No matter what happens in the return leg (which isn't for three more weeks anyway) they clearly deserve it. In fact, don't count Lyon out of the French title race yet either. At the time of this writing, they sit fourth, eight points behind defending champs Bordeaux with 14 games (including one with les Girondins) left on the Ligue Un calendar.

Photo taken from Independent.co.uk story without permission.

Here's who will win the Champions League Round of 16 match-ups

Hopefully that title got your attention. The match-ups have been drawn and the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is set. Using our Top 25 ranking as a guide, we will tell you in no uncertain terms exactly who will advance to the quarterfinals. This process has worked out brilliantly for us in the past, so why not go to the well once more?



The draw itself was, well, interesting. If UEFA was anywhere near as corrupt as FIFA we'd all be screaming about the process being rigged, the way it so obviously was in the recently-conducted World Cup draw. However, UEFA is slightly less corrupt than FIFA (think a municipality in Moldova versus Kabul's central government), so slightly fewer of us are complaining. For my part, I will say that it's uncanny how both organizations (FIFA and UEFA) just so happened to get exactly the draw that stands to benefit their TV ratings the most. But enough about that.

Admittedly this might have waited until the latest version of the Top 25 is released Monday morning. But the draw was today so it's only fair that we use the data available to us at this time. Here goes:

Barcelona (top 25 at time of this ranking: 1) vs. Stuttgart (unranked)
Here you have a team that has lost but once all season and won a tough group against a club that barely qualified out of the worst group of them all. An absolute no-brainer: Barca's the pick. Stuttgart will likely wish they had been relegated to the Europa League after seeing this draw.

Girondins Bordeaux (2) vs. Olympiakos (13)
This one, too, is an easy choice. Bordeaux hit a brief rough patch a few weeks ago but emerged unscathed: first place in their Champions League group, first place in Ligue Un. The match-up with Olympiakos, while not as easy as, say, Barcelona's, should not pose a serious challenge to a team of Bordeaux' caliber. Which is too bad, really, because we think the Greek side have potential. Granted their Champions League group was not very difficult but they've done well domestically (first place in the Greek Super League). They've met their match here though. Bordeaux should take this one with relative ease.

Chelsea (3) vs. Inter Milan (6)
Now things get interesting. On one hand you have Chelsea, a team that we considered the best in the world as recently as a fortnight ago. Opposing them are Inter Milan, who peaked at number 2 but have since fallen back to earth. Who will win? Chelsea have too much fire power. Inter are a bit fickle. Blues will win, but it could be close.

Manchester United (4) vs. AC Milan (9)
Who could have imagined that David Beckham will face his old club in the UEFA Champions League? It's almost as outlandish as, say, England being drawn into a World Cup group with the U.S.! Sadly for Becks, his team will lose both encounters: against Man United here and against the Yanks June 12. Yes we went there. What'cha gonna do about it?

Real Madrid (5) vs. Olympique Lyonnais (unranked)
If this match-up had taken place a month or two ago it would have been a real cracker. Now however, there is a clear favorite: the club from Spain's capital city. L'OL started very strongly to the season but have had a horrible time of it recently. They even dropped out of the Top 25 altogether, something that has not happened in the two plus years I've been keeping the rankings. In France's Ligue Un they are now a mid-table side, if you can believe that. This match-up will just pile on their misery. Real to advance.

Sevilla (7) vs. CSKA Moscow (unranked)
We were looking forward to seeing Sevilla tested by a top club outside of Spain. We'll have to wait a bit longer. CSKA Moscow, for all their charms, are not even the best team in Russia (that honor goes to Rubin Kazan, who made a lot of noise in Europe the past couple of months and will surely be a force to be reckoned with in the Europa League). Sevilla are tough; they defeated Real Madrid and, uh, that's about it. Both teams emerged from weak groups (very weak in Sevilla's case). The team from Andalucia will prevail but what happens after that is anybody's guess.

Arsenal (8) vs. Porto (11)
Last year Porto had a great run that very nearly took them to the semifinals. Unfortunately for them, Cristiano Ronaldo scored one of the nicest goals you'll see and Man U advanced in their place. This year, will a different English team bring about Porto's ouster? Yes, Arsenal will. But it will be close again. Ultimately, the skill, speed and talent of Arsene Wenger's side will spell doom for the Portuguese club--just like Man United did for them last year. But if you were going to bet on an upset, this might just be the one to pick.

Bayern Munich (10) vs. Fiorentina (unranked)
After a slow start to the season Bayern Munich have been on a tear and find themselves at a season-high 10th spot in our top 25 ranking. Fiorentina had a few moments and were most recently sighted in the Top 25 on Nov. 9, when they were 17th. Unfortunately, the Florentine side have few quality victories to their name and were undoubtedly the beneficiaries of Liverpool's disintegration. So this one should not be close. However Bayern are a fickle bunch and who knows what will happen to them between now and Feb. 17. By that point they could be out of the Top 25 again. Or maybe not: the team has confidence now and after the victory at Turin know they are capable of great things. Regardless of what happens in the next two months, they should be able to summon the Entschlossenheit to get past Fiorentina. I love these German words for which there is no real English equivalent, don't you?

Guess what? Bayern's back!

Bayern Munich ralled for four straight goals at the Stadio Olimpico to upset Juventus Turin 4-1 and book an improbable advancement to the UEFA Champions League elimination round. The win completes a stunning turnaround for the Bavarian club, who appeared dead in the water in Group A just two matchdays ago. After losing 2-0 to Girondins Bordeaux at home on Nov. 3, Bayern sat third in the group a distant four points behind Juventus. But Juve's loss at Bordeaux Nov. 25, coupled with Bayern's slim victory over Maccabi Haifa, set the stage for today's turn of events.

David Trezeguet put the hosts up on 19 minutes before Bayern keeper Hans Joerg Butt converted a penalty to level matters. Amazingly considering he is a) a goalkeeper and b) has never played in Italy, it was the third time Butt scored against Juventus in his career. The prior two goals came in Champions League matches for Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg SV. At 1-1 Juventus still would have advanced, however. But the Germans came out firing in the second half and Ivica Olic but the guests up on 52 minutes. After Trezeguet missed from point blank range 15 minutes later, Mario Lopez Gomez doubled Bayern's lead on 83 minutes and effectively put the game to bed.

The victory is the fourth in succession for Louis van Gaal's side, who have now not lost in six matches dating to the Bordeaux game Nov. 3. Their domestic run is even more impressive, dating to a Sept. 26 home loss to Hamburg SV. Still, Bayern is just fourth in the Bundesliga, though only four points behind the leaders Leverkusen.

There will obviously be consequences in Soccer Source's Top 25 rankings, where Juve has held a top 10 spot most of the season while Bayern has taken up the rear (when they made the list at all).

Photo taken from torwart.de without permission.

Liverpool crash out of Champions League despite win

Liverpool got the job done in Budapest, defeating Debreceni 1-0 on an early goal by David Ngog, but were eliminated from the UEFA Champions League nonetheless as a result of the other game in their group. That game saw Fiorentina defeat Olympique Lyon by an identical 1-0 score, which means Reds have no way of surpassing the second-placed French side. Liverpool trail Lyon by three points in the standings with one matchday remaining but Lyon hold the key tie-breaker, head-to-head competition, having beaten and drawn Liverpool in their two meetings.

The exit should surprise noone at this point as Reds' chances were very slim to begin with. And does anybody here think Rafa Benitez' club are in a position to beat Fiorentina when they meet at Anfield in a fortnight's time? For that matter does anybody think it will still be Benitez' club at that point? Yeah yeah, we know. It may not all be Rafa's fault. And Liverpool did hold up their end of the bargain by at least defeating the Hungarians today (by 1-0. And we're talking about a Debreceni team that has zero points from five Champions League encounters here. But hey, they did win). Problem is, the team was in too big of a hole to begin with. Going into the Nov. 4 game with Lyon Benitez himself said Liverpool needed to win its final three games to have any hope of advancing. Well, they drew that one 1-1 and that was pretty much all she wrote.

There will be no Christmas miracle for Reds this season. Nor will there be an Easter one next spring, with the way things are going. A top four place in the Premiership is still a distinct possibility, but things are going to need to change real soon. Maybe that change will need to start at the top. But enough about Liverpool because this is depressing me.

Order may have been restored in Group F, where Barcelona defeated Inter Milan 2-0 at Camp Nou (seventh-biggest 'soccer mecca' in the world, says us). Not only do Barca take over first place in the group, but the scoreless draw between Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev means Inter stay second. The two juggernauts can finally end all hope for the minnows on the final matchday Dec. 9; Barca will need just a draw at Kiev to win the group and Inter "control their own destiny" at home vs. Kazan. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Nobody outside of Scotland will mistake Glasgow Rangers for a good team anytime soon, but Walter Smith's side actually had an honest-to-goodness chance at advancing to the elimination round coming into today. All they had to do was beat VfB Stuttgart at home and...well, they didn't manage that, in fact they lost two-nil. (The lone bright spot from a U.S.-centric viewpoint is that DaMarcus Beasley was substituted into the match five minutes from time). Rangers' loss, combined with Unirea Urziceni's unlikely win over Sevilla (though they were already through but whatever) means Rangers do not even have a chance to play in the Europa League next spring. Sucks for them. Stuttgart and Urziceni will meet in Germany on the final matchday to determine who joins Sevilla in the elimination round. The Romanian side has a two point edge over the Swabian one (look up Swabia if you can't figure out I was referring to Stuttgart) so a draw will see them through.

Finally, a lone bright spot from an Anglo viewpoint...never mind, Arsenal aren't an English team anymore. But they beat Standard Liege 2-0 today in a game they didn't even need to win. The race for second place will be interesting after Olympiakos played a scoreless draw at AZ Alkmaar. Unless I'm mistaken, Liege hold the tie-breaker over Olympiakos, whom they trail by three points. The Greek side host Arsenal on the final matchday while Liege host Dutch champs Alkmaar. So the Belgian side could still advance to the elimination round, right?

Photo taken from clickliverpool.com without permission.

Liverpool's Champs' League hopes hang by a thread and a dogfight in Group F

Liverpool's chances of advancing to the UEFA Champions League knockout stage are on life support after the team's 1-1 draw at Olympique Lyon earlier today. With the point from the draw, Lyon become the first team in the group to advance. Likely to join them are Fiorentina, who sit second on nine points. Liverpool are third with four points. Debreceni take up the rear with zero points, which means Reds will in all likelihood have a chance to salvage their season in the Europa League.

Rafa Benitez' men visit the Hungarian side on the next matchday, which is Nov. 24. They'll need to win the game and hope Fiorentina are defeated at home by Lyon. The first should be simple enough. Debreceni are horrible, having posted a goal difference of 5 for, 14 against in their four Champions League games. They're not even good in Hungary, where they sit sixth (albeit with two games in hand on most teams). This is not a team that should be in anything called a "Champions" league.

Then again, neither should Liverpool. Their record this year is an even .500 (it's an American term. Don't worry if you don't understand it) in all competition. When they met Debreceni at Anfield in September, a first half stoppage time goal by Dirk Kuijt was all that separated the two sides. So who knows they'll even be able to win the game? It's Debreceni's last chance to get into the Europa League and Liverpool are wounded, perhaps mortally. Maybe the Hungarians will pull it together and hand Reds another loss?
Assuming Rafa Benitez' side win at Budapest Nov. 24 (and assuming they're still Rafa Benitez' side) and assuming Fiorentina lose at home to Lyon, Liverpool will then need to defeat the Florentine club at Anfield on Dec. 9, the final Champions League matchday. If they get there, we like their chances. But Lyon has not been on form lately and will probably not be favored to win in Florence.

But all this Liverpool talk is depressing. Let's focus on the most exciting Champions League group, the one with four (count 'em!) Top 25 clubs: Inter Milan (ranked second), FC Barcelona (third), Rubin Kazan (11th) and Dynamo Kiev (13th). No pundit had anybody but Inter and Barca advancing out of that group but now there is a (at least somewhat) realistic chance neither will make it. Today Milan finally got their first win of the group stage, coming back from a 1-0 halftime deficit to win at Dynamo Kiev and take first place in the group. Rubin Kazan and Barca, who played a scoreless draw in Russia today, are tied for second with five points each, one fewer than Inter. Dynamo sit fourth, on four points. So absolutely anything is possible. Inter play at Camp Nou next and then finish up the group stage with Kazan at the San Siro. Having lost to Rubin Kazan previously, Barca needs to post a better result than the Russian champions the rest of the way (by virtue of the first tie-breaker, which is head-to-head competition). The Spanish champs finish up group play at Dynamo. Chances are good that all four teams will still be alive after the next matchday. In fact, the only club that can be eliminated is Dynamo, and for that to happen they need to lose at Rubin Kazan and Inter will need to win at Barcelona. Then again, if that happens, Barca will be eliminated as well. Madness!

Photo taken from TheSun.co.uk.

Upsets rule the day in UEFA Champions League

In one of the most shocking UEFA Champions League matchdays in recent memory, no fewer than four of Soccer Source's Top 25 clubs were upset or had to settle for draws. The biggest, undoubtedly, was No. 1 Barcelona's fall from grace in a stunning 2-1 home loss to No. 23 Rubin Kazan. Few soccer fans had even heard of the Russian upstarts before the group stage draw, and the club appeared destined to fade from memory just as quickly when it lost at Dynamo Kiev on the first matchday. A 1-1 draw at home with Inter Milan a fortnight ago made some of us--the Soccer Source ranking committee included--take note, but it is safe to say nobody expected this in a million years.

Kazan's victory was punctuated by a superb goal in the opening minutes of the match. The goal, a rocket from about 30 yards by Alexandr Ryazantsev, was so unexpected it even caught the video cameras off guard (scroll to 2:35 of this video. I haven't seen any better angles yet). Barca leveled the game in the second half before the guests got the winner in the 73rd minute. Ryazantsev, whose first name is sometimes spelled Alexander in Western press, is a 23-year old Russian midfielder who appears to have come out of FK Moscow's youth system.

Yet Kazan's victory was by no means the only shocking result on the day. Indeed, it wasn't even the only one in its group! In the other Group F match, No. 13 Dynamo Kiev twice led No. 4 Inter Milan at the San Siro before settling for a 2-2 draw. Amazingly, Barca still lead the group (on goal difference, but still) as one of three teams on four points. Inter are last, on three points. The two megalith clubs may end up advancing to the knockout stage, but the Eastern Europeans have already made the group far more interesting than anybody could have anticipated.

If there was one big loser on the day it was Liverpool, who lost not only their home match to Olympique Lyon, but also Steven Gerrard to injury. The midfielder is expected to miss this weekend's match against Manchester United, an encounter that may very well be Rafa Benitez' last chance to save his job. Liverpool are already in dire straights in Group E, trailing second-placed Fiorentina by three full points after La Viola won their game at Debreceni. No wonder Benitez is already saying Reds must win their last three group stage games to qualify for the knockout round. Liverpool have been in holes before since the Spaniard took charge, but probably none this deep.

It was not a good day for British clubs. Arsenal managed just a draw at AZ Alkmaar and Glasgow Rangers were overrun by Unirea Urziceni (talk about clubs nobody has ever heard of!) 4-1 at Ibrox. Rangers are dead last in Group G, with one solitary point from three matches. Walter Smith's side have even less of a chance as reaching the knockout stage than Liverpool. The Daily Mail is calling it one of the lowest points of Smith's career. Not knowing much about Smith or Rangers, I can't really comment about that. But Rangers are definitely a major disappointment in probably the weakest CL group.