Real Madrid are in a bit of crisis and Spurs can beat them -- but only if Harry Kane plays

Tottenham Hotspur host Real Madrid in the Champions League tomorrow hoping to rebound after a tough week. For the uninitiated: Spurs were every bit Real's equal in their first meeting a fortnight ago and provoked a series of media fellatio after trouncing Liverpool. Then the letdown of the Carabao Cup defeat to West Ham and 1-0 loss to Manchester United on the weekend have caused a pretty brutal hangover for Tottenham.

Real Madrid have been struggling as well and their struggle is more real if only because of the immense expectations placed on this side. Zinedine Zidane's men were upset by newly-promoted Girona on Sunday and have fallen to third place in La Liga, eight points behind their Catalan rivals after just 10 games. More importantly, they've been dropped from our latest #top5 (so too have Tottenham). The team's president bitch-slapped the players in front of Zidane after Sunday's defeat and there is talk of this being the first genuine crisis facing Zidane as Real manager.

To put the pressure facing Zidane into perspective: if Spurs win tomorrow, it would be just the second time Real have lost consecutive games since he took charge at the Bernabeu, according to data compiled by our friends at Transfermarkt. But that would be enough to plunge Real into real crisis and one would think put Zidane's job in peril.

Tottenham are up for the task. They almost nicked the first game at the Bernabeu. Against Liverpool, the last time an 'A' Spurs side graced the Wembley pitch, they were confident and played superbly, with the 4-1 score flattering Liverpool in the end. An 'A' Spurs side -- ay, there's the rub. Tottenham's best player, Harry Kane, is nursing a hamstring injury and missed the last two games, both losses. At Old Trafford, Harry Kane's absence gave Jose Mourinho the necessary latitude to actually dominate proceedings for once, at least in the early going. Spurs might have been unlucky to not sneak off with a point, but there's no question the game would have been completely different with Kane in the starting 11. The latest reports have Tottenham "optimistic" that Kane will be fit for the match, with Pochattino apparently hinting he could play, though the medical staff will surely err on the side of caution seeing how this is not a must-win situation (Spurs are still in good shape to advance to the next round even with a loss).

Spurs will need Kane to keep Real's defenders honest. Without Kane in attack, everything else Tottenham does is secondary. He is the only one who can create the necessary havoc by himself. Sure, having Fernando Llorente alongside to free up space worked out great in the first game and can probably have he same effect this time out. But Kane needs to be there from the start. Without him, there simply isn't enough to threaten Real Madrid. Christian Eriksen has been poor lately and was arguably Spurs' worst player at the Bernabeu. Dele Alli is not in midseason form yet either and does not appear capable of single-handedly breaking down a defense like Real Madrid's. Heung Min Son is a complementary player and nothing more, or at least not yet. All of them need Kane to work more effectively. For this reason it's hard to see Spurs having much of a chance if Kane is not starting tomorrow.

Our fearless forecast then will have to depend on this x-factor. If Kane starts, we're calling a 2-1 Tottenham victory. If he is on the bench and can see 30 or 45 minutes of action, chances favor a draw. If he is unable to play at all, Spurs have no chance.

With Kane out, Poch will need tactical masterclass for Spurs to succeed at Old Trafford

Tottenham Hotspur face Manchester United at Old Trafford on Saturday in a battle for second place in the Premier League. With Harry Kane out injured it will take all of Mauricio Pochettino's tactical guile to outwit Jose Mourinho's carefully laid plans to park the bus.

Yes, we expect Mourinho to park the bus even with Kane now officially ruled out. Because that's what Mourinho does. It may be rooted in his failure to make it as a player, but whatever its cause we don't expect Mourinho to deviate from it now. So an element of surprise is needed. In their last league game against Liverpool, Spurs' 5-3-2 lineup shocked Juergen Klopp's defense into submission in minutes. Klopp, far all his charms, is nothing of the defensive mastermind that Mourinho is. Or even close. In fact, Klopp is looking more and more like a decidedly average manager in general. But let's leave Liverpool and their latest savior alone for once as they've suffered enough recently.

The point is, after Tottenham's successes against Real Madrid and Liverpool (we're not talking about the Carabao Cup here, sorry) Mourinho will now be expecting a 'WTF' Spurs lineup -- probably even more so without Kane. That element of surprise is gone. And with Kane out, so too is the option of really going for the jugular to reinstate shock and awe. One vision had Poch trotting out three strikers: Heung Min Son on the left, Kane in the middle and Fernando Llorente on the right. That's out the window. Instead, a lot of the responsibility for Spurs' attacking game falls to Dele Alli. Tottenham will again seek to exploit the width of the pitch as they did against Liverpool, aiming to catch United's slow defenders off guard. That will be a more difficult order than it was against the likes of Dejan Lovren. But it could still work. United's defense is not 1970 vintage Inter Milan. In fact, it's pretty average. Eric Bailly is really the only defender of true quality and with Victor Lindelof, Man U may have their very own Lovren in training.

But Bailly remains questionable for this match. Phil Jones is expected back from injury, so United will likely not have to go with Lindelof. Still, even without Kane Spurs' attack will present problems for this Man United defense. Son, Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen can make quick work of the likes of Jones and Chris Smalling if given the space. Mourinho knows this so his gameplan will likely depend on throttling Spurs' midfield play, but here too his options are limited without Marouane Fellaini and Michael Carrick, also injured. The alternative, to attack, is simply not Mourinho's style, regardless of what Martin Keown says. Man U might need the win more, but fear of losing at home is more paramount at this stage. So expect Mourinho to risk little.

This is where Pochettino needs to get creative, again, with his wide players. Starting Serge Aurier on the left against Liverpool was a masterstroke. An even better alternative is Danny Rose, fit enough for 60 minutes of Carabao Cup duty at midweek (which we said we wouldn't talk about. But mentioning it is okay). Keep Aurier on the right and have the two wingbacks push up aggressively. The back three of Jan Vertonghen, Davinson Sanchez and Toby Alderweireld have proven they are capable without much support from the defensive midfield -- though Eric Dier is also healthy and available for that. Without Pogba, United's creative attacking duties appear to be falling to Jesse Lingard. That worked out fine in the Carabao Cup (okay, mentioning it again), but Spurs are better than Swansea City. Further bolstering the midfield battle in favor of Spurs will be Moussa Dembele, also healthy again, and ready to start according to some reports. This leaves Victor Wanyama as the only other absence for Tottenham, unless you count Eric Lamela of course, but he's been injured (or something) since the Obama administration.

In the end it probably won't be enough. This unfortunately has the look of another tactical stalemate match, not unlike United's visit to Anfield a few weeks ago. A lot of that depends on Spurs' ability to break through Man U's defense in the early stage of the match. The opening minutes will set the tone. Again, the element of surprise is largely gone and without Kane there may simply not be enough quality in Tottenham's attack to strike the early blow. Expect a scoreless draw from this one.

Sorry Spurs Fans: We Probably Won't Beat Liverpool

File this one under posts I will be very happy to be wrong about. But a Tottenham Hotspur victory over Liverpool in Sunday's marquee Premier League matchup is looking very unlikely indeed. So, fellow Spurs fans, it is probably a good idea for us to temper our expectations, as giddy as we might be after this week's impressive showing at the Bernabeu. There are a number of reasons for this:

Start with history. Past performance is not always a reliable indicator of future results, as any investor will tell you. But if there's a pattern, well, then there's a pattern. Historically, Liverpool have won or drawn almost two-thirds of these matches, according to data compiled by 11v11.com: the tally now reads 80 wins for Liverpool and 47 for Spurs with 41 draws. The recent history has been even more in Liverpool's favor; it's been almost five years since the last time Tottenham won this matchup. You have to go back to the first term of the Obama administration, to Nov. 28, 2012 when Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale scored in a 2-1 victory at White Hart Lane. Since then it has been seven Liverpool victories and three draws. Most recently, in February, Reds beat us 2-0 at Anfield in one of Spurs' worst performances of the entire season.

Which is the other part of this: Not only do Liverpool play us tough, but we invariably play poorly in these matches. During one three-game stretch in 2013 and 2014, Liverpool won by a combined 12-0 (consecutive victories of 5-nil, 4-nil and 3-nil). Some of that overlapped with the season Liverpool bottled competed for the title, but still. And then there's the Wembley factor. While we aren't buying any of this Wembley hex talk, it is undeniable that, domestically at least, Tottenham simply do not play well at their temporary home. Perhaps it's how the size of the pitch is affecting our pressing game, as Danny Higginbotham points out here. Whatever the reason, something ain't working.

Spurs have had the benefit of weak teams visiting Wembley to get off the schneid and impress with an offensive performance to remember: Swansea, Burnley and Bournemouth were the last three opponents and suffice it to say we're still waiting for the goals to flow in any number. (For the record, Swansea was a scoreless draw, Burnley finished 1-1 when we gave up a late equalizer thanks to Kieran Tripper and while Bournemouth was our first ever league victory at Wembley, it was by the narrowest of 1-0 margins. Against a team firmly ensconsed in the relegation zone). The lack of goals is only the most apparent problem. The greater concern is the inability to create bonafide chances. Something is missing in the attacking third of the pitch, a final link in the chain appears to have been removed from Spurs' attacking play at White Hart Lane last season. Dele Alli is trying to do too much, in too many places, at too many times. His connection with Harry Kane, which at times was almost telepathic last year, is nowhere near as fluid. Christian Eriksen, too, has been uninspiring at various points -- nowhere more so than against Real at midweek, where he was the one negative in an otherwise masterful performance by the team.

Liverpool, of course, are beset by their own problems. Some of them, ironically, may stem from the same cause as Spurs', namely being forced to dial back the pressing game. And of course much has been said and written about Liverpool's poor defense, and justifiably so. Whether this is the fault of Juergen Klopp or some other factor is a conversation best left for a different day. But surely Reds' defense is better than Swansea's or Bournemouth's? If Spurs are unable to create real chances against these clubs, can they really be expected to accomplish this task against Liverpool? Maybe this will finally be the week the Tottenham attack finds its groove and shows the prowess it has displayed away from home? But it may not be smart to make that bet. The U.K. bookmakers all have Liverpool as strong favorites to win. Oddsmakers can be, and often are wrong of course, but they set their odds for a reason. Set pieces have been Liverpool's downfall but here too Spurs have yet to find their groove. Of the 17 goals scored in league play this season, we can recall just two coming from set pieces (Alli's off of a corner versus Burnley and Eriksen's against West Ham. Please let us know if you recall others). And Liverpool's defense was vastly improved in their last game against Man United. We unfortunately can't see them giving up more than a goal or two to Spurs tomorrow. Not with the way things have been going.

Okay, so might a draw be in the offing? The bookies have a draw even less likely than a Spurs victory. But Klopp has never won a competitive match at Wembley. Liverpool's attack is as impressive as their defense is underwhelming, but Tottenham have arguably the best backline in the league (maybe even in all of Europe) and good defense typically beats good offense. Plus Sadio Mane is out injured. Reds beat up on poor Maribor in midweek Champions League action but were unable to break down a stubborn Manchester United defense (and midfield. And, well, everything since Jose Mourinho parked the bus) last weekend. Liverpool have scored more than one goal in a match just once since August -- a stretch of games that included Burnley and Newcastle. Spurs have everybody healthy defensively, probably even Danny Rose (though probably not for the full game). Cartilage Free Captain expects Heung-Min Son and Dele Alli to start for Spurs with Trippier rotating into Serge Aurier's spot at right wingback, but this is very much an 'A' Spurs squad that will take the pitch. For these reasons a draw may be more likely than oddsmakers are anticipating. We predict Tottenham 0, Liverpool 0.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated Sadio Mane's first name.

Euro 2012: Forecast, History and Other Things Worth Knowing

For the first time in nine months we are facing a weekend with no top flight soccer action in the northern hemisphere. (We're talking men's professional soccer here and no, Major League Soccer does not qualify as top flight). What better time to take a look at the main event of this summer's soccer schedule, the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship (aka Euro 2012)?

With its geopolitical influence waning, its economy in shatters and its currency union on the fritz, the "old continent" at least gets to hold what it can rightfully claim as the most competitive soccer tournament in the world. Unfortunately, "most competitive" does not always mean "most entertaining" or "most memorable." With few exceptions (van Basten, Bierhoff, Rehhagel) there are no great sagas that emerge from Euro tournaments the way they do from World Cups or even club soccer competitions. There are no equivalents to the Maracana miracle (Brazil, 1950) the "Wunder von Bern" (Miracle from Bern, Switzerland, 1954), football coming "home" (England, 1966), Showdown in Seville (Spain, 1982), "hand of god" (Mexico, 1986), etc etc. For whatever reason, the exploits of the Euro are quickly forgotten. Despite the high level of competition, or perhaps because of its resulting parity, Euro games very rarely enter the annals of the sport's history. In many ways this is a shame, or perhaps it is entirely fitting given the issues facing Europe at the moment.

Somebody else can pontificate on this at greater length should they so choose. For now, let's keep the focus on the field -- which in soccer is called the "pitch" (lesson number one for American readers looking to sound knowledgeable at Irish pubs this summer). Here, then, are some fearless forecasts for the Euro 2012:

1. Germany will either make the final or exit at the group stage. With one exception, this has been the pattern since 1972. That one exception was in 1988 when (West) Germany hosted the tournament and lost to the van Basten/Gullit-led Dutch juggernaut in the semifinals, so consider that an anomaly for those reasons. Apparently even Germans can succumb to pressure when they have to play in front of home crowds. Which leads us to...

2. Unless the host country is world class, it probably won't go anywhere. This is a stark contrast to the World Cup, where South Africa just became the first host not to qualify for the elimination round. Just two host countries, Portugal in 2004 and France in 1984, made the finals and just one (France) won it. Both of those clubs were at the top of their game at the time: France was a semi finalist at (and probably should have won) the 1982 and 1986 World Cups. Led by Michel Platini, the French played beautiful soccer, featuring prominently in the very best games of that era (that would be the 1982 semifinal against West Germany, still considered a traumatic event in France, and a 1986 quarterfinal victory over Brazil, still the best game this blogger has viewed in his lifetime). The Portugal side from 2004 featured Luis Figo, Deco, Cristiano Ronaldo and others and Porto won the UEFA Champions League that year. Besides those two, only two teams others won elimination round matches: England in 1996 and the Netherlands in 2000 (true story. Prior to 1996 the first "elimination round" was the semifinal). So things do not look good for Poland and the Ukraine and if you're a gambling man (or woman) you may not want to place bets on either club.

3. England will not win. This is like saying the sky is blue, but it's still worth pointing out. Besides, in the Ukraine the sky isn't always blue. Isn't that where Chernobyl is? Anyway, England may have looked impressive in qualifying but the runner-up in their group was Montenegro for God's sake. Montenegro! Since when is that even a country? Anyway, England don't face the most challenging competition in the group stage either, with France, Sweden and the aforementioned Ukraine. Consider their chances of surviving the group very good. But that will probably be the end of the road. The runner up in England's group D face the winner of group C, which will probably be Spain. If they win Group D, England would be most likely to face Italy, which we just can't see ending well either. But again, you knew this already and aren't holding out any unrealistic hopes, right? Right???

4. The semifinals will probably feature at least one team nobody was expecting. Since the Euro tourney expanded to include a quarterfinal, in 1996, there has been one of these each time except 2000. In '96 you had the Czech Republic and France, in '08 Greece, and Russia and Turkey last time. Who will it be this year? Probably not either of the hosts, if history is to be believed, and not England. That still leaves plenty of teams, such as Ireland (wouldn't that be fitting after the 2010 debacle vs. France), Russia (again), Greece (again) or maybe Croatia. Greece would be nice for obvious reasons, but if they're back on the drachma by then one would hope the bonuses get paid in euros.

Yes, these are strange days in Europe, but the more things change the more they (often) stay the same. Germany is pretty predictable at this tournament, as we have seen. If you're looking for a safe bet, invest in US Treasuries. If you're looking to gamble, bet on Germany if they advance to the elimination round. But it will still be gambling. If the recent history of Europe (both soccer and otherwise) is any guide, patterns and paradigms are bound to change, often with no notice. They play these games for a reason and nobody, least of all us, can tell you with any degree if certainty what is going to happen. Except England won't win. We're pretty sure of that.

Sorry Chelsea, Barca's Superiority Will Carry the Day

Chelsea fans don't want to hear this, but today their club faces a monumental task that will in all likelihood fall short. The reference here is of course to the return leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal with Barcelona that takes place at Camp Nou stadium.

Blues shocked just about everybody with their 1-nil victory in last week's first leg. It was a gutsy performance from Roberto DiMatteo's men and one that supplied (temporary) payback for the bitter defeat at the same stage of the same tournament three years ago.

Alas, unlike in 2009 Chelsea were not the better team on the day. Barca dominated possession and in the first 45 minutes saw one shot carom off the crossbar and another headed off the line. In first half stoppage time, almost as an afterthought, Didier Drogba put the home side up. Only through a tremendous defensive effort, fantastic goalkeeping and some good luck (missed chances by Adriano and Sanchez, a stoppage time ball off the post) were Chelsea able to hang on for the win.

Over 180 minutes one side's run of luck usually cancels out and Chelsea are simply not good enough to make up the difference. Pep Guardiola will take advantage of the additional space supplied by the Camp Nou pitch to stretch a tired Blues defense that, let's not forget, is anchored by a pair of 32-year olds. While it is true that Barca have not played up to their usual high standards lately, the Catalan side's poor run of form gives them something to prove. After Sunday's bitter home loss to Real Madrid, Barca are all but assured of losing the Liga crown to their archrivals. With only the cup final on May 25 on the agenda, resources have been freed up to defend the Champions League title with renewed vigor. So expect the blaugrana to come out fighting. And expect Chelsea to eventually -- probably in the first 45 minutes -- to yield a goal. The second half should then see the floodgates open.

A bit of a grandiose prediction, it is true. But Chelsea have struggled for much of the season. While that may not have been a reflection of their true quality, they are surely playing over their heads a bit now. Over two legs a team like that will succumb to a superior opponent. Barca, even after Sunday's humiliation, are that opponent.

Here's who will win the Champions League Round of 16 match-ups

Hopefully that title got your attention. The match-ups have been drawn and the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is set. Using our Top 25 ranking as a guide, we will tell you in no uncertain terms exactly who will advance to the quarterfinals. This process has worked out brilliantly for us in the past, so why not go to the well once more?



The draw itself was, well, interesting. If UEFA was anywhere near as corrupt as FIFA we'd all be screaming about the process being rigged, the way it so obviously was in the recently-conducted World Cup draw. However, UEFA is slightly less corrupt than FIFA (think a municipality in Moldova versus Kabul's central government), so slightly fewer of us are complaining. For my part, I will say that it's uncanny how both organizations (FIFA and UEFA) just so happened to get exactly the draw that stands to benefit their TV ratings the most. But enough about that.

Admittedly this might have waited until the latest version of the Top 25 is released Monday morning. But the draw was today so it's only fair that we use the data available to us at this time. Here goes:

Barcelona (top 25 at time of this ranking: 1) vs. Stuttgart (unranked)
Here you have a team that has lost but once all season and won a tough group against a club that barely qualified out of the worst group of them all. An absolute no-brainer: Barca's the pick. Stuttgart will likely wish they had been relegated to the Europa League after seeing this draw.

Girondins Bordeaux (2) vs. Olympiakos (13)
This one, too, is an easy choice. Bordeaux hit a brief rough patch a few weeks ago but emerged unscathed: first place in their Champions League group, first place in Ligue Un. The match-up with Olympiakos, while not as easy as, say, Barcelona's, should not pose a serious challenge to a team of Bordeaux' caliber. Which is too bad, really, because we think the Greek side have potential. Granted their Champions League group was not very difficult but they've done well domestically (first place in the Greek Super League). They've met their match here though. Bordeaux should take this one with relative ease.

Chelsea (3) vs. Inter Milan (6)
Now things get interesting. On one hand you have Chelsea, a team that we considered the best in the world as recently as a fortnight ago. Opposing them are Inter Milan, who peaked at number 2 but have since fallen back to earth. Who will win? Chelsea have too much fire power. Inter are a bit fickle. Blues will win, but it could be close.

Manchester United (4) vs. AC Milan (9)
Who could have imagined that David Beckham will face his old club in the UEFA Champions League? It's almost as outlandish as, say, England being drawn into a World Cup group with the U.S.! Sadly for Becks, his team will lose both encounters: against Man United here and against the Yanks June 12. Yes we went there. What'cha gonna do about it?

Real Madrid (5) vs. Olympique Lyonnais (unranked)
If this match-up had taken place a month or two ago it would have been a real cracker. Now however, there is a clear favorite: the club from Spain's capital city. L'OL started very strongly to the season but have had a horrible time of it recently. They even dropped out of the Top 25 altogether, something that has not happened in the two plus years I've been keeping the rankings. In France's Ligue Un they are now a mid-table side, if you can believe that. This match-up will just pile on their misery. Real to advance.

Sevilla (7) vs. CSKA Moscow (unranked)
We were looking forward to seeing Sevilla tested by a top club outside of Spain. We'll have to wait a bit longer. CSKA Moscow, for all their charms, are not even the best team in Russia (that honor goes to Rubin Kazan, who made a lot of noise in Europe the past couple of months and will surely be a force to be reckoned with in the Europa League). Sevilla are tough; they defeated Real Madrid and, uh, that's about it. Both teams emerged from weak groups (very weak in Sevilla's case). The team from Andalucia will prevail but what happens after that is anybody's guess.

Arsenal (8) vs. Porto (11)
Last year Porto had a great run that very nearly took them to the semifinals. Unfortunately for them, Cristiano Ronaldo scored one of the nicest goals you'll see and Man U advanced in their place. This year, will a different English team bring about Porto's ouster? Yes, Arsenal will. But it will be close again. Ultimately, the skill, speed and talent of Arsene Wenger's side will spell doom for the Portuguese club--just like Man United did for them last year. But if you were going to bet on an upset, this might just be the one to pick.

Bayern Munich (10) vs. Fiorentina (unranked)
After a slow start to the season Bayern Munich have been on a tear and find themselves at a season-high 10th spot in our top 25 ranking. Fiorentina had a few moments and were most recently sighted in the Top 25 on Nov. 9, when they were 17th. Unfortunately, the Florentine side have few quality victories to their name and were undoubtedly the beneficiaries of Liverpool's disintegration. So this one should not be close. However Bayern are a fickle bunch and who knows what will happen to them between now and Feb. 17. By that point they could be out of the Top 25 again. Or maybe not: the team has confidence now and after the victory at Turin know they are capable of great things. Regardless of what happens in the next two months, they should be able to summon the Entschlossenheit to get past Fiorentina. I love these German words for which there is no real English equivalent, don't you?

Fearless Forecast: Champions League Round of 16

Seeing how well we did with our predictions last year, we figured we owed it to our loyal readership to take another stab at it this season. We will follow the same, simple formula that worked so well for us in the past (p.s. if you haven't noticed by now, these are sarcastic comments): the team's standing in our Top 25 ranking of the world's best soccer clubs!

Speaking of fearless forecasts, might as well get this bit of "we told you so" out of the way: yesterday we told you to expect same vast dichotomies in the Round of 16 match ups. Well, we were right. Ok, now on to the crux of the matter. The predictions:

Barcelona (Top 25 rank at time of this writing: 1) vs. Olympique Lyonnais (17)
Obviously, Barcelona should win this easily. Lyon are having a pretty rough time of it this season (by their own high standards at least). Where in past seasons the French club might have cakewalked their way to the domestic championship, this year they appear to have a battle on their hands. In their only tests with a top 10 club, they managed one point from two encounters with Bayern Munich. Barca, meanwhile, are playing inspired ball; the only blemishes on the club's 2008 season to date were a loss on opening day of the Spanish liga and one in a meaningless game with Shakthar Donetsk on the last day of the CL group stage. Barca's the pick.

Inter Milan (2) vs. Man United (7)
This looks to be the most anticipated of the eight match ups. Inter Milan are off to the races in Serie A again, leading the league by a solid six point margin over Juventus. Their European campaign has been a little more suspect (losing at home to Panathinaikos) which is why they ended up in second place in the group, thus enabling this match up to take place. But Man United have not impressed on the European stage either. Their Champions League group turned out to be one of the weakest of the bunch, yet Man U. still couldn't beat Villareal, who finished second in the group. In fact, Red Devils' record against top competition in general has been suspect. They lost to Liverpool and Arsenal while managing a draw at Chelsea. Their only victory against anybody who's ever been in the Top 25 came against Celtic (who, it turns out, probably didn't have any business being in the Top 25 to begin with). This one could go either way but we expect Man United to step up for the challenge. So we're going to go against our own infinite wisdom here (as encapsulated in the Top 25) and pick Red Devils to prevail. It will be close though.

Liverpool (3) vs. Real Madrid (13)
The Spanish champions have struggled this year, which is why they find themselves in the second half of the Top 25. Liverpool, meanwhile, have shined, nowhere more so than in the Oct. 26 victory at Stamford Bridge. Real could make it interesting, but expect Reds to prevail. Liverpool it is.

Juventus (4) versus Chelsea (6)
Another match up between top 10 teams that is sure to get tons of ink. And another one that is very tough to pick. Juventus have done well, particularly in Italy where they are second. They also beat Real Madrid twice in their CL group. Chelsea, meanwhile, have not impressed. They have a terrible record against top competition, losing all games against Top 25s (Liverpool, Man U and Arsenal. They also got beat by Roma but not when they were Top 25). We're going with the Italian side here. Inter's the pick.

Bayern Munich (5) vs. Sporting Lisbon (15)
This one should be easy for Bayern, who are surely glad they won their group now (as opposed to how they'd feel if they had drawn the likes of Inter Milan). Sporting have done very little to impress anybody, ourselves included. They probably don't deserve to be in the Top 25. And once they lose this match up, they won't be. Bayern will take this, probably with ease.

AS Roma (8) versus Arsenal (10)
This match-up could make or break the season of either club, both of whom have struggled domestically. Roma were at one point relegation fodder but have since rebounded to break into mid-table. Arse have been knocked out of the "Big Four" but has somehow impressed against top competition (victories over Man United and Chelsea). Arsene Wenger's kids (average age is what, 22?) meet their maker here. AS Roma to take it.

Atletico Madrid (11) vs. Porto (unranked)
If this were a college football (American football) match-up it would be the Toilet Bowl. Atletico came into the season with so much promise but have barely managed to hang around the European spots in La Liga. They have not beaten any quality competition. And no, that won't change when they put Porto to the sword. The Portuguese champions are a shadow of their former selves, hanging around in sixth place in Liga Sagres. Atletico will win this. What they do from there depends on how they find their form in the season's second half (they have the potential to go very far and remember this club features many new faces, not all of whom have meshed with the system yet).

Villareal (12) vs. Panathinaikos (16)
Actually check that: maybe this is the Toilet Bowl? Although Panathinaikos did win their group and Villareal have held their own against Top 25 competition. This one could go either way but we think Villareal have too much firepower. The yellow submarine is the pick.

So there you have it, folks. What do you think of our fearless forecast? Sound off below. We may even pretend to listen.

Fearless Forecast, Revisited: UEFA Champions League Round Of 16

When the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 pairings were drawn, this site offered a preliminary forecast, with a promise to revisit the matter closer to kick off. That time is now. Our main guide is still the Top 25 ranking of the world's soccer clubs, (the number in parentheses is the team's corresponding ranking this week; the first leg's home teams are listed first):

Liverpool (unranked) vs. Inter Milan (1)
Tuesday, 2:30pm EST (ESPN2)
Most audiences in the U.S. will get this one tomorrow. A shame, because it's sure to be a blowout. Inter have better players at virtually every position, with Fernando Torres really the only Red capable of starting for the Milan side. To make matters worse, Reds just suffered a new low this weekend, when they lost at home to Barnsley in the FA Cup. Roberto Mancini's side have not lost to anybody since Sept. 19. Only the most delusional Scouser would give Reds any realistic chance of winning this one. And yet, many apparently still do. Pity the fools...

Roma (7) vs. Real Madrid (4)
Tuesday, 2:45pm EST (ESPN Digital, 360)
Without a question the most enticing match-up of the Round of 16. This one could have been the final. Alas, the two teams face each other now, with their European seasons on the brink. Real are the better side, though not by much. In Roma's favor is the fact that the Spaniards have hit a run of poor form: losses in two of their last three and four of their last eight games. Of course Roma has lost two of their last three as well. Expect Real to take it.

Schalke (unranked) vs. Porto (6)
Tuesday, 2:45pm EST (Setanta Premium)
Porto are having a solid season but will be without Portuguese international defender Jose Bosingwa, who picked up an injury in the recent friendly with Italy. The Dragons have dominated the bwinLIGA nearly at will and are likely to win it again this year, with a 10 point lead over second-placed Benfica. Their 4-1 loss at Anfield earlier this season is a greater cause for concern, though if memory serves it was a pretty even game and Reds scored most of their goals in the final minutes after Porto had thrown everybody forward into the attack. And Schalke? Fifth in the Bundesliga, they have nevertheless booked impressive wins recently over arch rivals Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart and also tied Bayern Munich on the road (but that was early in the season). Other than that their claim to fame is that they managed scoreless ties, at home, to Chelsea and Valencia in the group stage. So I'd be surprised to see the Germans take this one. Porto's the call.

Olympiakos (12) vs. Chelsea (9)
Tuesday, 2:45pm EST (Setanta Sports)
Judging by their positions in the Top 25, this one stands to be close. Olympiakos have been very solid and came out of a tough group with Lazio, Werder Bremen and Real Madrid. So they'll give the Blues a run for their money. But that's all. With John Terry and Didier Drogba expected back for this one, a resurgent Michael Ballack and Nicolas Anelka even eligible, the Greeks will be overwhelmed with the firepower. Chelsea to take it.

Arsenal (3) vs. AC Milan (11)
Wednesday, 2:30pm EST (ESPN2)
Arsene Wenger's side have undoubtedly had a better season than the rossoneri, and are higher placed in the Top 25, but I expect a few variables will lead to their downfall: 1) Jens Lehmann, whose best days are clearly behind him, 2) Kaka, the best player in the world at present, 3) Pato, who is healthy and who has made the bulwark defenses of Serie A look like the New York Red Bulls back line last season (okay maybe not that bad, but you catch my drift) and 4) Experience, which Milan has not least of which thanks to their world club cup title from December. Also, with the first game at Emirates, Milan can sit back and let Gunners come at them, which is not an optimal situation of Wenger. It also plays into Milan's strengths. On second thought, this one may not even be close.

Lyon (16) vs. Man. Utd (2)
Wednesday, 2:45pm EST (Setanta Sports)
The French side have had a mediocre season by their high standards, struggling to take first place in Ligue Un (which they now hold by a single point) and to advance out of the group stage of the Champions League. Man U. have lost some games they shouldn't have, which has cost them their lead in the Premiership, but have showed their class against top competition. I think you know where I'm going with this: Au revoir, Lyon.

Celtic (25) vs. Barcelona (5)
Wednesday, 2:45pm EST (ESPN Digital, 360)
Celtic are a nice team with several things to recommend of themselves, but Barca are world class. Yes they've had their issues this season, but are still second in the Spanish league and within shouting distance of their hated rivals from the capital city. A loss here would be nothing short of a calamity for the Catalans, and the worst thing to happen to Barcelona since Sept. 11--Sept. 11, 1714. I exaggerate a bit, but the point is, they won't let it happen. Barca to advance.

Fenerbahce (10) vs. Seville (unranked)
Wednesday, 2:45pm EST (no legal TV broadcast in the U.S.)
This one could throw off my whole ranking system. Fener enjoy their current spot by virtue of qualifying out of a highly decent Champions League group (Inter, PSV Eindhoven and CSKA Moscow), by being the only team in the world to beat Inter this season (it happened Sept. 19 on a goal by Deivid, one of several Brazilians with the Istanbul side--not including its coach, quite possibly the most famous Brazilian not named Pele or Lula) and by hanging tough in the Turkcell Liga, where they trail Galatasaray by a single point. Also, Fenerbahce are unbeaten at home this season and have in fact only dropped points twice at the Sukru Saracoglu; Sept. 1 in a 1-1 tie with Caykur Rizespor and Jan. 13 in a 2-2 draw with Istanbul BB. So they're perfect in European competition. Sevilla on the other hand have had a traumatic season, with the Antonio Puerta tragedy and Juande Ramos' defection to White Hart Lane, but have recently rediscovered their form, tieing Barca three times in recent weeks (twice in Copa del Rey play). Still, I think Fener are better and will justify their high ranking by advancing.

Photo taken from football.co.uk without permission

All Publicity Is Good Publicity...Right?

When Saturday Comes, which modestly bills itself as "the half decent football magazine" (that would obviously never fly in the U.S. and not just because of the term "football") did a small piece on Soccer Source in its January issue. Very small. We're talking three lines. The blurb was nothing but a perfectly justified ridicule of one of my "fearless forecasts," but for a fledgling blog like this one, any publicity is good publicity. After all WSC is very well-respected, so if Soccer Source is on their radar--even as an object of ridicule--it must mean I'm doing something right, right? Right?

Uh, yeah. Well anyway, what was all the fuss about in the first place? You'll remember a Soccer Source poll that asked who should be the starting England goalkeeper. The winner was Aston Villa's Scott Carson (by a pretty healthy margin, too). This led me to rejoice when Steve McClaren choose Carson as his starter for that fateful Croatia match back in November. I had a whole post on the topic, titled (I swear I'm not making this up) With Carson in goal, England cannot fail.

We all know what happened next: Carson was crap (worse than Robinson, in fact) , England lost and failed to qualify for Euro 2008, McClaren was sacked, Capello hired, etc. etc. At this point, I should have done what most smart bloggers do, which is delete the embarrassing post from the archives. But I figured that was intellectually dishonest and besides, at the time I really figured Carson the best man for the job. Instead I owned up, with this mea culpa.

WSC didn't give me any credit for that. And why should they have? The funny thing wasn't that I had owned up, but that I had been stupid enough to make such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. They did, however, give me credit for my "pertinent and courageous headline," though I'm not entirely sure that wasn't tongue-in-cheek. Check out page 11 of the January edition (print edition only, I can't find it on their Web site). They even have a screenshot of Soccer Source. I have arrived!

Fearless Forecast: UEFA Champions League Round Of 16

It's time for the first-ever Soccer Source Fearless Forecast, as we zero in on the just-drawn UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match-ups. Our main guide will be the Top 25 ranking of soccer clubs, a season-long work-in-progress that attempts to gauge the standings of the best club teams in the world. The assumption here is that the Top 25 ranking--due to its superior use of data-mining and keen insight--is roughly accurate and as such a reliable prognosticator. A flawed assumption? You bet, but so too are all forecasts as well as all assumptions (remember that when you ASSume you make an ass out of you and me). Onward:

Schalke (ranked 23 at time of this writing) vs. Porto (6)
The German side just made their debut on the list, and to much contention at that. Readers made some excellent points as to why the Gelsenkircheners don't belong. Their issues will be addressed in Monday's Top 25 but for now the point is that Schalke look far inferior to their Portuguese opponents. Forecast: Porto takes it without problems.

Roma (8) vs. Real Madrid (2)
This one looks a bit closer to call. Real have spent most of the season in the top 5 but Roma have played well and are second in Serie A behind mighty Inter. Potentially the most entertaining match-up as Roma play an energetic, attacking (and I might add, un-Italian) style and Real have quite a bit of their own firepower (to put it mildly). This one will be fun. Who will win? Probably Real, but like I said the margin for error is not very wide at all.

Olympiakos (9) vs. Chelsea (7)
Another match-up featuring top 10 teams. As far as I can tell, this one hinges on who Chelsea have at their disposal when the sides meet Feb. 19. Drogba? Essien? Terry? If the answers are yes, yes and yes, then figure Chelsea to advance. But Olympiakos are tough and have shown they can play with anybody--even a fully-staffed Chelsea side. Forecast: Too close to call right now.

Liverpool (14) vs. Inter Milan (1)
Rafa Benitez' team (if it will in fact still be his team when these two sides take the field) have no chance unless they make substantial acquisitions in the January transfer window. Even then they probably don't have much of a chance, unless Inter suddenly lose their entire team to injuries or something. Right now I can't see how the Reds an even keep pace. Figure their run of CL successes to be reaching its end. Forecast: Inter, easily.

Celtic (unranked) vs. Barcelona (5)
Gordon Strachan's team has suddenly hit a poor run of form. Even if they get it together by the time these two teams take the field they won't have much of a chance. Barca simply has too much firepower--even if Jar Jar leaves Camp Nou in the January transfer window. Forecast: Barca.

Lyon (12) vs. Man. Utd (4)
Sir Alex' men are playing better than any Premiership side right now and would be leading the table if it weren't for a lousy first week to the season. Lyon, while not unimpressive, have not displayed any of the brilliance of recent years. Now they're due to lose Karim Benzema to boot (if a team is willing to cough up the $40 million Lyon is demanding). Forecast: Man U should win this one.

Fenerbahce (17) vs. Seville (unranked)
Sevilla have had a traumatic season already, with the Antonio Puerta tragedy and Juande Ramos' defection to White Hart Lane. This might be the chance they need to pull it out. Fenerbahce are higher-ranked now and as such are viewed as favorites but I have a feeling things will be different when the two teams take the field. Forecast: To close to call.

Arsenal (3) vs. AC Milan (11)
AC Milan have not yet hit their stride, while Arsene Wenger's side appear to be firing on all cylinders. Milan will put up a good fight, but the way things look today, Gunners are simply too strong even for then. Then again, if Milan manage to frazzle Wenger's young team in the first leg at Emirates, things could potentially come very different. But I can't go against a team that has had a consistent stop in the top five. Forecast: Arsenal to take it.

With Carson In Goal, England Cannot Fail

Okay, that might be overstating things a bit, not to mention putting a little too much pressure on the Aston Villa goalkeeper's shoulders (as he is after all a regular reader of this blog. Yeah right). By now you probably know Scott Carson is starting in goal for England's crucial Euro qualifier against Croatia tonight. And if you didn't know, please leave and become a fan before returning to read this blog.

All kidding aside (and I was kidding. Please don't leave), Paul Robinson was a huge liability, who probably cost England the game in Moscow. Even before that match, I had tried to warn Steve McClaren about starting Robbo. Soccer Source readers backed me up on this, as only 6% thought the Spurs keeper should have started that game. The same poll found 40% in favor of Carson starting in Robinson's place. Alas, McClaren didn't listen and his decision very nearly proved fatal to England's qualifying hopes. (Let this be a lesson to you, boys and girls. You can doubt Soccer Source but you cannot doubt the opinions of its readers!) Luckily for McClaren, Israel bailed out the Three Lions (so much for those conspiracy theories) giving the former Middlesbrough manager another lifeline. He appears to be using it wisely. Starting Carson (indeed anybody other than Robbo) was the right choice. I feel better about England's chances already.

Are you reading this, Juande Ramos?